220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 43.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A LARGE AND HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL 50-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 202223Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE EAST THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TRANSITING EASTWARD. TC 16S IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SSTS AFTER LAND PASSAGE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC HARUNA WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE LEFT AND WBAR THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 30 FEET.
- JTWC + Eumetsat
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