Image: NOAA18 (Nic Cronje, Nelspruit) Click on image for larger view.
061500Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 39.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 061134Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL BANDING; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 060616Z ASCAT IMAGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG LLCC WITH NUMEROUS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ASCAT PEAK WINDS OF 50 KNOTS BUT IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. TC 14S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SST NEAR 25C AND MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TURNING MORE POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET.
- JTWC
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