SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN: SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANDO

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WXTLIST WMO=ABIO10
ABIO10 PGTW 151800                                              2012015 1742
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/151800Z-161800ZJAN2012//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151721ZJAN2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.4S
38.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2S 37.9E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN
STEADILY BUILDING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LLCC HAS SHOWN TIGHTER
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE
RISEN TO 25 KNOTS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE (25 TO 30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION (28-30 CELSIUS). TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ON BOTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE LLCC
REMAINS ISOLATED FROM THE DRY AIR AND HAS A MOIST AIR CHANNEL
FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO CYCLONE STRENGTH APPEARS
TO BE IMPROVING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
151730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
WXTLIST: done

- JTWC, CIMSS, Meteo France, Eumetsat and Meteosat