120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 57.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED EYE. RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED OVER THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 112203Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 12S REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN A DIFFLUENT ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDED WEST-EAST OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR HAS ASSUMED STEERING OF THE SYSTEM, ACCOUNTING FOR A FLATTER WESTWARD MOVEMENT. TC GIOVANNA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR AND EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL JUST BEFORE TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 24 FEET.
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) + CIMSS Tropical Cyclones
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