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130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED COINCIDENT WITH THE EMERGENCE OF A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL 40-NM DIAMETER EYE. A 130000Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE EYE IS ENVELOPED BY A CONTINUOUS RING OF ULTRA-DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS IN TURN SURROUNDED BY A CONCENTRIC RING OF SHALLOW REFLECTIVITIES, CHARACTERISTIC OF INTENSE ANNULAR CYCLONES. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OVER THE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS FORMED ITS OWN MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAU 48 BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN THAT BRINGS THE VORTEX POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET.
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) + CIMSS Tropical Cyclones
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