140300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 47.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 12S HAS MOVED OVER LAND AT 132200Z. THE PROMINENT EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN LOST AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE PAST TWO HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON THE STRUCTURAL APPEARANCE AND OBSERVED DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE PREVIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES BY JTWC AND KNES. TC 12S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, NEAR TAU 24, AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STR. THE TRANSITORY TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING A STR OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA TO BUILD EASTWARD, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE BEYOND TAU 48. THE STR WILL CAUSE TC 12S TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO MOZAMBIQUE. AS TC 12S CROSSES OVER MADAGASCAR, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS. AFTER RE-EMERGING IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC 12S WILL BEGIN TO RECONSOLIDATE AND START STRENGTHENING AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120 TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE, AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER SPREADS CONSIDERABLY BEYOND. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, BUT PREFERS THE NGPS AND GFS SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 48
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) + CIMSS Tropical Cyclones
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