I've also been looking at this event (missed this thread yesterday), but recent model runs (GFS and NOGAPS up to 00Z on Sat 6th) have wobbled considerably in the position of the trough. Usually with such events the majority of the precipitation is on the eastern side (due to clockwise circulation of surface moisture), so it is possible that this one will have no effects on Cape Town at all.
Edit: The 06Z GFS run (Sat 6th) is even less encouraging. A series of cold-fronts brushing the SW-Cape between Thurs 11th and Sat 13th is likely to eliminate any instability within 500km of Cape Town. Developments further inland on Fri 12th are still possible (as shown below), but likely to be pushed away to the east if the front arrives during Sat 13th.
This custom GFS chart for the period 00Z to 24Z on Fri 12th shows heavy rainfall over southern Botswana and the North-West Province, and areas around Gauteng and Mpumalanga (but nothing in the western half of SA).
Compiled by Gordon Richardson (Stormchasing SA)
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