Saturday 26 January 2013

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY (26 January 2013)



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 41.8E, 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 41.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BUT ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 260706Z AMSU-B 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITHIN A BROAD 
AREA OF TURNING THAT SPANS ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH SOME 
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 260705Z 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
AXIS GIVING WAY TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
 
- JTWC + CIMSS + EUMETSAT 

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