Tropical Cyclone Activity: Indian Ocean (Update 5)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2013 18:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMILE (07S) currently located near 22.9 S 54.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 40% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

032100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 54.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO 
THE CENTER FROM THE EAST. A 031615Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL PERSISTING; HOWEVER, THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DEGRADE. THE MAJORITY 
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS, BASED ON THE 
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THERE 
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE 
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT TC 07S HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE 
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
BEING CREATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. DUMILE CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE STR 
AND STARTS TO ACCELERATE BY TAU 24. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN 
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 
48. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND RAPIDLY 
COOLING SSTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 34 FEET.

- JTWC, Eumetsat and Tropicalstormrisk.