200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 40.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CENTER. A 200023Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM MOTION HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND APPEARS TO BE LOOPING. UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) HAS WEAKENED DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLOW TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48 UNTIL A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 72, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIROMENT AND UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET.
- JTMC
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