210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 41.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS IT MAINTAINED A LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 202234Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE EAST. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TRANSITING WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS RESULTING IN A MORE EASTWARD STORM MOTION. TC 16S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BECOMES A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE ALONG-TRACK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS THE LEFT OUTLIER AND WBAR THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 30 FEET.
- JTWC + Eumetsat
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