Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 16S (Haruna)

240300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 51.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS 
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 232322Z SSMI IMAGE, 
HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY, 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS. SATCON 
ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 45 KNOTS, WHICH FITS BETTER WITH THE OVERALL 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND WITH A 231812Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED 35 
TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ELONGATED LLCC EVIDENT IN RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 
WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER 
SST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, 
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 
REMNANTS OF TC 16S ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE 
AFTER TAU 48 AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET.

- JTWC + Eumetsat