Tropical Storms: South Indian Ocean - Convection by Madagascar Upgraded to Medium Chance for Tropical Cyclone Formation

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 
37.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 38.4E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS LOCATED OVER MOZAMBIQUE. 
THE LLCC IS TRACKING EASTWARD, HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATER OF THE 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE IR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS 
SUGGEST THAT TIGHT TURNING OVER THE CHANNEL MAY BE CONSOLIDATING 
AND FORMING A NEW LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT 
SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW. 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS MODERATE (20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES 
CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED BANDING AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED 
TO MEDIUM.

 

Image: Madagascar's  coastline can be seen through the convection. - Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS)

- JTWC + Eumetsat + Satellite Rapid Response System