(Click on images for larger view.)
250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 38.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE COMPLETION OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH A 15 NM EYE. A 250338Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE EYEWALL WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, HOWEVER MSI IS SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL DEFINED EYE IN MSI. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATING 120 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE MAINTAINING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE LOSS OF OUTFLOW INTO TROUGHING LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF TC 08S. RADIAL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE UNTIL TC 08S REACHES ABOUT 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 96 AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE INITIAL 36 HOURS BUT INCREASES TRACK SPEED IN LATER TAUS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.// NNNN
- CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
No comments:
Post a Comment