252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 38.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 20-NM EYE AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON A 251604Z CORIOLIS IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS
STILL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS CLEARLY DEPICTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 08S HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALTHOUGH A DEFINITE WOBBLE IS
EVIDENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KNOTS
AND WAS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 6.0
(115 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AFTER TAU 96. AT THIS TIME, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72. THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF
AND IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFF-SET THE
UKMO MODEL, WHICH DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SLOW
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 30 FEET.
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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