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Cyclone Giovanna to make landfall in Madagascar
On Monday, February 13th, Tropical cyclone Giovanna, located approximately 250NM east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked West-South Westward at 12 knots over the past six hours. The cyclone is forecast to strengthen before making landfall near the port city of Toamasina (eastern Madagascar) later this afternoon and evening.
The current forecast is for Giovanna to strike central/eastern Madagascar as a strong Category 3 storm with sustain winds around 110 knots (at least 203 km/h). As of this morning (February 13, 2012), the strongest convection of storms (highest/coldest cloud tops) are across the western portions of the system. Just like other tropical cyclones, winds will not be the only issues regarding this system. Waves, storm surge, and flooding could be another issue for Madagascar as it pushes westward. Wave heights are estimated around 7.3 meters, and those along the southern/central portions of the east coast of Madagascar will likely get the full force of Giovanna as the strongest winds and direct winds/surf against the coast will occur due to the location of the circulation.
This storm is producing a lot of deep convection, which shows a strong cyclone and very intense rain. I would not rule out five to ten inches of rain with some areas receiving more than a foot of rain. Giovanna is expected to weaken as it crosses Madagascar on February 14th and 15th.
Severe weather conditions are likely to trigger flash flooding and landslides in the affected regions. Road, maritime and air traffic disruptions are likely, especially in Toamasina. Temporary airport closures are expected to occur.
Another major concern about this storm is that once it pushes out of Madagascar, it will likely bring more rains to a flood prone area across Mozambique in south eastern Africa.
Once again, Mozambique residents should closely monitor this situation, especially since they have been significantly battered by cyclones Dando and Funso over the past month that have provided flooding rains in the region.
Earlier Giovanna passed near Mauritius and Reunion islands, bringing heavy rains and strong winds to these countries. Travellers are advised to listen to local and international media in order to get updated information. Stay away from flooded areas and rivers. If you are told to evacuate do so and follow specific routes. Confirm all your travel arrangements.
Sources:
-Franck Herbert
-Mauritius Meteorological Services
-Earthsky
-CIMSS
-JTWC
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