Just a preliminary thread post about the upcoming storms (since people are already posting on another thread). I haven't been able to produce custom charts yet, due to problems with the NCEP nomad servers. The approaching systems can be seen developing on the SAWS ship synoptic chart, and EUMetsat Antarctic sector Airmass animation:
metzone.weathersa.co.za/images/articles/ma_sy.gif
oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/ANTARCTIC/
Numerous model runs and forecasts (GFS and NOGAPS up to 00Z on Wed 8th) indicate two separate frontal systems reaching the SW-Cape between Fri 10th and Thurs 16th. Both systems look quite intense, with the possibility of strong winds, heavy rain, and snow.
The NCEP GFS ensemble of the 500 hPa isolines give an idea of the intensity of the systems, as well as the uncertainty at the longer durations (5-6 days ahead). www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_d...nsm_spa_hgt500a.html
Edit: The first NCEP GFS ensemble chart shows the position of the 500 hPa isolines at 12Z on Sat 11th, and the second at 00Z on Tues 14th.
Edit: When the lower of the two 500 hPa isolines (5550m) is over land, the freezing-level is likely to be below 1500m, and snow is likely over the mountains.
Compiled by Gordon Richardson - Stormchasing SA
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