28 September 2012: This morning (Fri 28th) there are some lingering showers over Cape Town, and there is a rather cold south-westerly wind. A 35 dBZ cell just passed over Kenilworth (7.20am), producing a short sharp burst of rain, with a few small melting hailstones.
The freezing level is currently at 1500m (FL050), and light snow is possible over the high mountains in the SW-Cape during this morning, spreading to the Eastern Cape later today (Fri 28th).
The SAWS warnings have now extended slightly, and cover all nine provinces in SA (although each area has different conditions).
27 September 2012: The first front made landfall over Cape Town during the evening of Wed 26th, bringing strong winds and heavy rain at times. This morning (Thurs 27th) it is clearing over CT, but with lingering showers, and likely to remain rather cold.
The SAWS lightning summary shows a few isolated strikes about 100km SW of CT: www.weathersa.co.za/Images/Trivis/Web200...day_LDNs_Ctry_01.jpg
Edit: The CT radar came back online sometime after 8am, and is currently (9.20am) showing some intense storm cells (> 50dBZ) about 80-120km due south (roughly in the area where the lightning occurred earlier). It is clearing from the west (also indicated on the satellite images).
The SAWS ship synoptic chart, and EUMetsat Airmass animation show that the deeping low is still to the SW of CT (with lots of cloud), and further unsettled weather is likely later today (Thurs 27th).
metzone.weathersa.co.za/images/articles/ma_sy.gif
oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/SOUTHERNAFRICA/
The cold upper trough (deep reddish brown) is still moving in, and likely to bring very cold conditions to CT tomorrow morning (Fri 28th), spreading inland later. Snow is likely in places (with the freezing level dropping from west to east), and likely to reach the Drakensberg by Sat 29th.
Edit: The latest GFS model run (00Z on Thurs 27th) continues to show a reduction in the total rainfall over land (more offshore), though the intensity will be high (50mm/day) for a short period. This custom chart shows the likely rainfall from 00Z to 24Z on Fri 28th:
Compiled by Gordon Richardson (StormchasingSA)
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