Update: WATCH: Tropical Low Pressure System: Mozambique/Indian Ocean - Possible Cyclone forming in the next 24 Hours.

SAT24 - 20H45 SAST

Water Temperature

Infrared 18h30 SAST

Visible 18h30 SAST

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.7S 34.1E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.5S 35.7E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-NORTHEAST 
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); HOWEVER, 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE CENTER AND SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF 
THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 211339Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 
210712Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH 
SOME ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A NARROW ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS), POSITIONED JUST EQUATORWARD OF 
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (50 TO 60 KNOTS), WHICH IS PROVIDING 
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

- JTWC + Eumetsat + SAT24 + CIMSS