Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng

Title Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng
Image ID 1475
Acquisition date 30-Jan-2013
Over head time 12:00:00
Satellite Sensor iodc
Sensor Channel(s) 1

When this image was acquired the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre on the island of Reunion reported that Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng was tracking south-westwards over the South-West Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar with a 10-minute average maximum wind speed of 90 knots (103.7 mph).

- University of Dundee (UK)

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 13S Felleng

310900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)INDICATES THAT TC 13S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE, LOSING ITS EYE
IN THE MSI AND INFRARED IMAGERY. A RECENT 310444Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AMPLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). TC 13S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE CURRENT MOTION, TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE STR AND THEN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FORECAST PAST TAU 48. TC 13S WILL BEGIN
EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT TAU 72 AS IT DRIVES INTO COLD (TWENTY SIX DEGREES CELCIUS) EMBEDDED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 32 FEET.

- JTWC + EUMETSAT

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 31 January 2013 16h00 SAST

• Current warning: Kwazulu Natal
• Updated: 31/01/2013 15:45:26
• Validity: 2013-01-31 to 2013-02-01
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Heavy rain along the coast and adjacent interior tonight and north-eastern parts tomorrow morning
• Detail: 1. Heavy rain is possible along the coast and adjacent tonight as well as the north-eastern parts tomorrow morning.

• Current warning: Western Cape
• Updated: 31/01/2013 15:44:20
• Validity: 2013-02-01 to 2013-02-01
• Type: Warning. Take action
• Subject: Extremely hot and extremely uncomfortable and humid conditions over the West Coast District
• Detail: 1. Extremely uncomfortable and humid conditions are expected in the West Coast District. 2. Extremely hot conditions are expected in places over the interior of the West Coast District.

• Current warning: All other Provinces
• Updated: 31/01/2013 15:44:20
• Validity: 2013-01-31 to 2013-01-31
• No warnings nor advisories in effect
• Subject: No Alerts
• Detail: No Alerts.

- SAWS

SA Weather Satellite Images: 31 January 2012 16h00 SAST

- SAT24 (Click on images for larger view.)

SANDF helping Mozambique back onto its feet after floods

The humanitarian side of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is again proving its worth in flood-stricken Mozambique where a number of military elements have been working 24/7, helping thousands displaced by floodwaters.

Additionally, the South African Air Force (SAAF) is providing airlift capability to Gift of the Givers. 28 Squadron C-130 transport aircraft have started moving more than 150 tons of food, donated by supporters of the Pietermaritzburg headquartered non-government organisation, to areas most in need.

The SANDF deployment includes Navy divers, SAAF Oryx helicopters and crew as well as primary health care nurses, dieticians and environmental health officers from the SA Military Health Service.

SANDF personnel have been in Mozambique for just over a week, first assisting in moving flood victims to safety while Navy divers did search and rescue tasks in swollen rivers.

“The joint operation has made it possible for the SANDF rescue team to distribute food as flood levels have been receding and search and rescue operations are now making way for food distribution actions,” SANDF Corporate Communications Director Brigadier General Xolani Mabanga said.

“The SANDF is still on standby in flood stricken areas with helicopters, medical personnel and search and rescue teams.”

Speaking to the Afrikaans daily Beeld, Colonel Andre Pieterse said from the hastily erected aid centre in the country, SANDF personnel had rescued at least 500 people from the raging Limpopo River in Mozambique earlier this week. This included hoisting people to safety from rooftops and out of trees.

Medicins Sans Frontieres/Doctors with Borders (MSF) is also been active in flood-ravaged areas of Mozambique as well as Malawi and Zimbabwe.

Just how badly South Africa’s eastern neighbour was hit by the heavy rain and subsequent flooding is starkly illustrated by Lucas Molfino, MSF medical co-ordinator in Mozambique.

He said: “Chokwe gives the impression of being a post-war scene. The majority of the population have been evacuated to temporary shelters. In the centre of town there are obvious issues related to sanitation and public health because of dirty stagnant water and the presence of dead animals on the streets.”

MSF estimates are there are around 114 000 people currently staying in 10 transitional camps. Sanitation is a major concern at the largest camp, Chiaquelane, close to Chokwe. There are currently 60 latrines to serve a displaced population of about 50 000 Molfino said.

The two health facilities in the area are out of drugs and malaria rapid tests and attend to about 300 patients a day. There is no ambulance for referrals and the main hospital lacks staff and equipment he added.

The SANDF contingent deployed to Mozambique last week in order to provide humanitarian assistance in the flood stricken areas. The contingent included South African Navy Divers, health professionals from the South African Military Health Services, two Oryx helicopters and a C-130 Hercules aircraft from the South African Air Force. The Maritime Reaction Squadron from the South African Navy is on standby.

- Defence Web

SANW doen noodleniging in vloedgeteisterde Mosambiek

Die Suid-Afrikaanse lugmag en vloot het reeds meer as 490 mense gered wat deur vloedwater in Mosambiek vasgekeer was. Die weermag is ook in die land ontplooi om noodlenigingswerk te doen na oorstromings groot verwoesting gesaai het.

- E-NUUS

Grueling work for emergency personnel at train accident

It has been a crazy 24 hours for JHB paramedics – starting off with the child who was injured yesterday morning after being dragged by a taxi up to this morning where more than 45 emergency vehicles were dispatched to the scene of a train accident in Attridgeville.

Investigations are already underway which will determine the reason as to the two passenger trains colliding into one another while using the same line. After the impact, one of the trains derailed and lay at the side of the tracks.

The metal was torn and crumpled from the force of the two trains colliding. After the first emergency vehicles arrival on scene, the area was cordoned off and a staging area for patients was erected nearby. Hundreds of emergency service personnel were either working on freeing trapped patients, coordinating the removal of the injured, treating those that were injured and transporting the injured to hospital.

After approximately two and a half hours on scene, it appears that most of the more seriously injured patients have been removed to hospital and only those that have sustained relatively minor injuries in the incident will be transported shortly.

Three people, including the driver of one of the trains has suffered critical injuries, one of them was removed from the scene by a medical helicopter. Seven more patients suffered moderate to serious injuries and the remaining patients with minor injuries totaled more than 100.

Without every effort put in by each person involved in the rescue, treatment or coordination on scene, we could have seen a much larger scale disaster.

- ER24

Rescue vehicles rush to train accident scene

Two passenger trains collided at Kalafong station in Pretoria. (@MedixGauteng via Twitter)

Cape Town - Around 17 rescue vehicles are on the scene of a train accident in Pretoria, while a helicopter has been dispatched to help the critically injured driver still trapped inside.

Two passenger trains collided at Kalafong station on Thursday morning.

Around 20 people were injured in the collision, Metrorail’s spokesperson Lillian Mofokeng told News24, with Chris Botha of Netcare 911 estimating the number at closer to 70.

"Reports from the scene are that the trains collided at around 07:20 near Church Street in Pretoria. Both trains derailed," Botha said.

Emergency personnel were working to free a trapped driver, Tshwane emergency services spokesperson Johan Pieterse told eNCA.

"At this moment we are unsure if the driver is still alive," Mofokeng told News24.

The line between Cor Delfos and Saulsville has been closed due to the accident

- News24

Trains collide in Pretoria

Pretoria - Several people were injured when two trains collided on the railway line between Cor Delfos and Saulsville, near Pretoria, on Thursday morning, Tshwane emergency services said.

Spokesman Johan Pieterse said one of the trains was stationary on the track when it was hit by the other.

“A few people were seriously injured, and the driver of the one of the trains was critically injured. He is still trapped inside the train,” Pieterse said.

“People should be advised that the line between Cor Delfos and Saulsville has been completely closed due to the accident,” he said.

He could not say how many people were injured and said more information would be available later in the day.

- Sapa/IOL

Storm beskadig talle huise in Kroonstad (30 Januarie 2013)

Een mens is beseer en verskeie huise beskadig in 'n storm wat Kroonstad in die noord-Vrystaat gisteraand getref het. Die persoon is beseer toe 'n H-O-P huis ineengestort het. Die volle omvang van die skade sal eers vandag bepaal kan word. Vroeër die middag het die verkeersowerheid in die Oos-Vrystaat motoriste gewaarsku om versigtig te bestuur, ná swaar reën in die Senekal-omgewing geval het. Verkeer op die N-5 was in 'n stadium deur die reën ontwrig. Verlede week het stortreën in Limpopo en Zimbabwe daartoe gelei dat die Limpoporivier sy oewers oorstroom het. In Mosambiek het die dodetal weens oorstromings in die suidelike deel van die land tot 38 gestyg. Sowat 150-duisend mense is haweloos gelaat weens die oorstromings.

- RSG Nuus

Weather helps douse most Western Cape fires

A fire in Franschhoek destroyed thousand of hectares of vegetation, damaged property and caused many to evacuate their homes. 29 January 2012. Picture: Jaco Bah via Twitter

CAPE TOWN - Western Cape Disaster Management on Thursday said human negligence or even arson could be behind a rash of wildfires across the province.

Thousands of hectares of vegetation has been destroyed by blazes in the Cape Winelands between Paarl and Franschhoek.

Disaster management chief director Colin Deiner said human error is usually behind vegetation fires.

“From past experience, 70 percent of fires are caused by humans, whether it is by accident or arson. The human element always plays a big part.”

WEATHER ASSISTANCE

Meanwhile, millions have been spent on firefighting operations in recent days.

Since last week Wednesday, there have been around 60 vegetation fires around Cape Town alone.

As cooler weather conditions played into the hands of firefighters on Wednesday, the fires in Cape Town, Overberg, Overstrand, Cape Winelands, Cedarberg, Walker Bay and Stanford were all brought under control.

However, blazes in the Wemmershoek Mountains near Franschhoek which started on Sunday, have still not been extinguished.

Deiner said properties and lives were not in danger and added fire officials will remain on high alert nonetheless.

“The fire is burning along the mountain slopes and we are concerned the wind is going to pick up.”

More firefighters have been sent to the province to help with the operation.

The exact cause of the fires is yet to be determined.

- EWN

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 31 January 2013 04h00 SAST

• Current warning: Eastern Cape
• Updated: 30/01/2013 15:46:12
• Validity: 2013-01-31 to 2013-01-31
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Heavy rains
• Detail: Heavy falls of rain are possible along the north-eastern coast.

• Current warning: Kwazulu Natal
• Updated: 30/01/2013 15:46:12
• Validity: 2013-01-31 to 2013-01-31
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Heavy rains
• Detail: Heavy rains are possible over the eastern parts of the province on Thursday.

• Current warning: All other Provinces
• Updated: 30/01/2013 15:46:12
• Validity: 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-31
• No warnings nor advisories in effect
• Subject: No Alerts
• Detail: No Alerts.

- SAWS

SA Weather Satellite Image: 31 January 2013 06h00 SAST

- Eumetsat (Click on image for larger view.)

Possible 24 Hour Rainfall: South Africa

- 1steweather.com

GFS Medium Range Forecasts of Vertical Velocity and Precipitation: South Africa

- U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

SA Sea Level Synoptic Chart : 30 + 31 January 2013

- SAWS

Dust Storm in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan

On January 23, 2013, a dust storm blew from northern Afghanistan into neighboring Turkmenistan. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image the same day.

The Amudar’ya (Amu Darya) River comprises part of Afghanistan’s border, separating it from Uzbekistan and part of Turkmenistan. South of the river is a sand sea that extends over much of northern Afghanistan. The dust plumes in January 2013 apparently arose from numerous source points in northern Afghanistan. In this image, the source points look like small pinpoints of pale beige, fanning out toward the west.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Aqua - MODIS - NASA

Volcanic Fertilizer

Several researchers have proposed that we could “engineer” our environment to offset the rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. One proposal is to “fertilize” the ocean to make blooms of phytoplankton, plant-like, microscopic organisms that are the “primary producers” of the seas. Phytoplankton use sunlight and nutrients to grow and then become food for other marine life; along the way, they absorb carbon dioxide. The geoengineers propose that by putting enough iron in the right places—the mineral is often in short supply in the open ocean—phytoplankton will bloom wildly and soak up a lot of CO₂.

Nature is very good at making prodigious blooms of phytoplankton. But as a recent “natural” experiment showed, the absorption of carbon dioxide is not always so prodigious.
On August 7, 2008, a stratovolcano in the Aleutian Islands began erupting just as a storm system was passing overhead. Over several days, the explosive eruption at Kasatochi Volcano sent ash and sulfur dioxide about 11,000 meters (35,000 feet) into the air and thousands of kilometers downwind. That iron-enriched ash spread out across a vast area of the North Pacific Ocean.

“Usually ash from volcanic eruptions is swept in one narrow direction by the wind,” said chemical oceanographer Roberta Hamme of the University of Victoria. “However, the ash from Kasatochi was caught in this forming storm system, which swirled over the ocean, depositing volcanic ash over an unusually large area.”

Downwind from Kasatochi, the concentration of chlorophyll in the ocean increased by 150 percent. Hamme and other scientists saw satellite observations of both the ash plume and of the jump in chlorophyll—the sign of a phytoplankton bloom. Instruments on oceanographic buoys and gliders also captured elements of the event, as did scientists who were cruising through the area on a Fisheries and Oceans Canada ship. Hamme and the team connected the dots and concluded that the eruption led directly to a vast bloom of phytoplankton.

The image at the top of the page shows the concentration of aerosol particles as they were dispersed in the atmosphere southeast of the Aleutian Islands in August 2008. Aerosols are airborne particles such as sea salt, dust, air pollution and, in this case, volcanic ash. The measurements were made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite.

The second map depicts the increase in chlorophyll in the ocean in the month after the eruption at Kasatochi. Chlorophyll is the pigment in plants and phytoplankton that harnesses energy from the Sun for food, and the abundance of chlorophyll (in milligrams per cubic meter) is a proxy for the abundance of plankton. The map does not show total concentrations; instead it shows how much chlorophyll rose above (green) or below (brown) the norm for August in that region. The data were acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites.

The data plot (third image) shows the total concentration of chlorophyll within the white inset box marked in the second map, including the significant increase in 2008.

In the aftermath of the eruption and bloom, Hamme and colleagues looked for the carbon impact of the event. Estimating the amount of carbon dioxide in the water before, during, and after the event, they found that the phytoplankton pulled about 0.01 Petagrams (10¹⁵ grams) of carbon out of the atmosphere. For scale, the burning of fossil fuels releases about 6.5 Pg of carbon annually, and about 2 Pg are absorbed naturally by the ocean.

“Despite the huge area of iron addition and the optimal time of year when there was plenty of sunlight, the impact of this August 2008 event was quite small in terms of carbon absorption,” Hamme added. “This tells us that iron fertilization would have to be performed on a truly gigantic scale to have an impact on our climate.”

1. References

2. Alaska Volcano Observatory (n.d.) Kasatochi Introduction. Accessed January 23, 2013.
3. Global Volcanism Program (n.d.) Kasatochi. Accessed January 23, 2013.
4. Hamme, R. C., et al. (2010) Volcanic ash fuels anomalous plankton bloom in subarctic northeast Pacific.
Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L19604.
5. NASA Earth Observatory (2008) Natural Hazards: Aleutian Islands' Kasatochi Volcano Erupts.
6. Oceanus (2007, November 13) Fertilizing the Ocean with Iron. Accessed January 23, 2013.
7. Science Now (2010, October 6) How Volcanoes Feed Plankton. Accessed January 23, 2013.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen, use OMI aerosol data provided by the Aura science team, MODIS chlorophyll anomaly data from the Ocean Color team, and chlorophyll data from NASA Earth Observations (NEO) courtesy of Kevin Ward. Caption by Michael Carlowicz.

Instrument: 

Aqua - MODIS - NASA

Franschoek brand onder beheer gebring.

17h00 - Brandbestryders het uiteindelik die brand by Franschhoek in die Kaapse Wynland onder beheer gebring. Dit het vier dae lank buite beheer gewoed met uiters warm en winderige toestande wat die bestryding daarvan belemmer het. Honderde brandweermanne is van ander provinsies ontbied om die brand saam met boere en plaaswerkers te bestry. 'n Woorvoerder van Rampbestuur - Justin Lawrence - sê die brand tussen die dorp en die Paarl het sowat 10-duisend hektaar verwoes.

- RSG Nuus

Photos: Lightning Pretoria ( 28 January 2013)

- Jaco vd Merwe

Cape fires: Fear of ecological disaster

Cape Town Fire and Rescue and Table Mountain National Park firefighters were called out to combat a fire on the mountain above Simon's Town. Picture: Jeffrey Abrahams

Cape Town - The SA Air Force is on high alert and firefighters are bracing themselves for a “critical” 10 days ahead.

Resources are stretched and the challenge is aggravated by soaring temperatures and strong winds fanning some of the worst fires in the province in decades.

Authorities fear an “ecological disaster” and have spent R1 million to combat the fires in the Wemmershoek Mountains near Franschhoek.

“Most of the veld in the area is between eight and 12 years old. It needs to burn at least every 17 years to properly regenerate its seed. This fire would probably destroy most of the veld,” Working On Fire operations manager Deon Rossouw said.

On Tuesday night efforts were directed at huge fires burning from Franschhoek towards Paarl and Du Toitskloof.

“We are very concerned it will reach the N1 and are moving all our vehicles to that area. The fires are not contained,” Cape Winelands municipality station commander Royston Harris said.

He said there was no immediate danger to property and no need to evacuate people.

On Tuesday firefighters battled four large fires, in Franschhoek, Paarl, Eden district and the Cederberg where fires have raged since January 16.

More than 370 additional firefighters have been called in from the Eastern Cape and Gauteng.

Colin Deiner, chief director of Disaster Risk Management, said: “Without additional teams we would’ve been in a lot of trouble. We also have Air Force Oryx helicopters on standby if any lives or property are at risk and to help with aerial firefighting support.”

Deiner said the Franschhoek fire was one of “the worst fires” the province had seen in years because of the size of the area burning. More than 72 000ha of vegetation, fynbos and farmland have burnt.

The fire was allegedly caused when residents of the Prindal informal settlement made a fire in a field.

Reinforcements from Cape Town, the Free State and the Eastern Cape are expected to arrive on Wednesay. The Cape Winelands District Municipality, Drakenstein Local Municipality, CapeNature and Working On Fire are assisting.

Rossouw said the ecological impact on the fynbos and vegetation land could be disastrous. The fire was “extremely” difficult to bring under control and he hoped reinforcements would mean the end of the fire.

CapeNature spokeswoman Liesl Brink said a team of 120 firefighters was battling to contain the Franschhoek fire, which started on Sunday. Four helicopters and 13 vehicles had been deployed. “Firefighters assisted the owners and workers of two farms in the Franschhoek valley on the Wemmershoek road to evacuate when the fire spread through the properties. Two farm cottages were damaged.”

The Cederberg fire has affected 24 000ha of vegetation and was under control yesterday morning. Authorities are on high alert as the south-easter is expected to pick up again.

Environmental Affairs and Development Planning MEC Anton Bredell said: “The first priority is to prevent the loss of lives and property.” A total of 27 vegetation fires flared up around the city on Tuesday.

- Cape Times

Southern Africa: Floods Situation Report (as of 30 January 2013)

Highlights

Heavy rains continue to fall over northern Mozambique, causing floods in some areas and affecting at least 510 people. Parts of northern and central Madagascar are also
recording heavy rainfall from the same low pressure system located in the Mozambique Channel. Felleng, now a Category Three Tropical Cyclone and expected to strengthen to Category Four in the next 24 hours, continues its southward trajectory, about 200 km parallel to the eastern coast of Madagascar. Felleng is projected to bring three to four days of rainfall to the eastern coast of Madagascar; flooding is expected.

Situation Overview

While the flood response in southern Mozambique is continuing, new cases of flooding are being reported in northern Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Felleng is moving parallel to the eastern coast of Madagascar, and while not projected to make landfall, flooding is still expected. River levels are also high across the region.

Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Felleng threatens east coast

Felleng, now a Category Three Tropical Cyclone and expected to strengthen to Category Four in the next 24 hours, continues its southward trajectory, about 200 km parallel to the eastern coast of Madagascar (See annex for a planning map of districts likely to be affected by Felleng).

Felleng is projected to bring three to four days of rainfall to the eastern coast of Madagascar. Floods are expected on the eastern coast and possible in the capital Antananarivo (in part also due to the low pressure system in the Mozambique Channel that is bringing rain to parts of northern and central Madagascar and northern Mozambique.

In Antananarivo, the floods contingency plan has been activated. An emergency meeting has been held between the city council and the Red Cross to establish temporary shelters and prepare for possible evacuations.

In other regions, the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) is working with the Red Cross to prepare for possible evacuations. Two BNGRC teams will be deployed to areas at risk, and a Medair Team is already in place.

The UN Country Team has also met and stands ready to respond in support of BNGRC.

Mozambique

New floods in northern Mozambique


Heavy rain continues to fall over northern Mozambique, causing floods in many areas. In the Maganja da Costa district in Zambezia Province, 105 houses have been damaged, affecting 510 people. Assessment of the damage is ongoing.

As more rains over northern Mozambique is expected over the next few days, the situation requires close monitoring.

National authorities have requested sector leads to strengthen their support to provincial Emergency Operation Centers (COE) in the provinces of Zambezia, Cabo Delgado and Niassa.

Mozambique, in dealing with the floods in the south, is already stretched to capacity, therefore additional flooding in the north could have serious humanitarian implications. Flood response continues in the south

The distribution of food and relief supplies by Government and partners in the flood
affected areas in southern Mozambique are ongoing.

Due to high number of people in temporary shelters, the Disaster Management
Technical Council (CTGC) has recommended the strengthening of protections measures in all shelters in Gaza Province.

The UN is sending a helicopter to Gaza to support the provision of relief supplies and to enable access to isolated areas, such as the districts of Chigubo and Chicualacua.

Sanitation is still a major concern in Chokwe district, as well as in the temporary shelters. There is a need for water purification supplies and materials to construct latrines, as well as for antibiotics, oral rehydration salts and mosquito nets. More tents and shelter kits are required to assist those that remain unsheltered. As the
number of those in need continue to increase, more food is also needed. The following information has not changed since yesterday’s report:

At least 48 people have died in severe floods that have devastated southern Mozambique. Some 250,000 people have been affected, of which 146,000 people are still being housed in temporary shelters. Access to some areas continues to be an issue, with many roads and bridges washed away.

The rains over southern Mozambique have ceased for the time being, and the floodwaters are slowly subsiding. Still, many have lost everything in the floods and will thus require continued humanitarian assistance.

The Government of Mozambique, supported by the UN and partners, are responding; and while much support is being provided, more is needed. The Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) is drafting response plans, which should be launched within the next few days. It is hoped that these will be adequately supported, in order to save lives and livelihoods.

Botswana

Flooding in northern Botswana

No new information has been received since yesterday’s report. The information below still the latest:

Flooding due to extremely heavy rains has been reported in the North-East and Central districts of Botswana.

It is still unclear how many people have been affected. However, in Dukwi Refugee Camp around 120 shelters housing 325 refugees have been damaged by high waters. Sewage systems in the camp are also affected. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), together with Botswana Red Cross Society (BCRS), has responded to address the immediate needs of the affected people. The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, is supporting the Government of Botswana to assist displaced refugees and has provided food and other basic materials.

The prepositioned relief supplies of both NDMO and BCRS has now been completely exhausted, which could affect their ability to respond to any further flooding that may occur. A full situation report is expected shortly.

Forecast

The low pressure system in the Mozambique Channel will continue to bring heavy rains to northern Mozambique and northern and central Madagascar over the next week. Tropical Cyclone Felleng will also bring heavy rains to the entire eastern coast of Madagascar. Significant rainfall is also forecasted for central South Africa, including Lesotho, as well as much of Zambia and Malawi. The following week
(07 to 15 February), rain is again expected over southern Mozambique, which may again increase water levels.

This report is produced by OCHA Regional Office for Southern Africa (ROSA) in collaboration with humanitarian partners. It was issued by OCHA ROSA. It covers the period from 29 to 30 January 2013. The next report will be issued on or around 01 February 2013.

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 13S Felleng

301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SYMMETRICAL 20-NM EYE. THE SAME ANIMATION 
ALSO SHOWS A POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS EMERGED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY, COMPLEMENTING AN ALREADY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS BEGUN TO RECEDE IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
CURRENTLY DIGGING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND CAUSING TC 13S TO
TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY THE OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
AFTER TAU 24, TC FELLENG WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR
THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE VORTEX TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 38 FEET.

- JTWC + CIMSS 

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 30 January 2013 16h00 SAST

• Current warning: Eastern Cape
• Updated: 30/01/2013 15:46:12
• Validity: 2013-01-31 to 2013-01-31
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Heavy rains
• Detail: Heavy falls of rain are possible along the north-eastern coast.

• Current warning: Kwazulu Natal
• Updated: 30/01/2013 15:46:12
• Validity: 2013-01-31 to 2013-01-31
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Heavy rains
• Detail: Heavy rains are possible over the eastern parts of the province on Thursday.

• Current warning: All other Provinces
• Updated: 30/01/2013 15:46:12
• Validity: 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-31
• No warnings nor advisories in effect
• Subject: No Alerts
• Detail: No Alerts.

- SAWS

SA Weather Satellite Image: 30 January 2013 15h00 SAST

- Eumetsat (Click on image for larger view.)

Situation Update : Floods over Chokwe, Gaza Province, Mozambique (as of 29 Jan 2013)

This map illustrates satellite-detected areas of flood waters along the Limpopo River in the city of Chokwe of Gaza Province, Mozambique, as detected by WorldView-2 imagery acquired 26 January 2013. Multiple villages including the city of Chokwe are completely inundated by flood waters along the river. However flood waters appear to be receding in this area as they move south of Chokwe. Flood waters have reached as far as Xai Xai south of Chokwe city. East of the Limpopo River additional villages are inundated as flood waters progress south east from the river. Large sections of road and railroad are also affected. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field.

- UNITAR / UNOSAT / RELIEFWEB.

Mozambique military called in to battle floods

MAPUTO (AFP) - Mozambique's military has been called in to help tackle severe flooding that has killed 48 people and is likely to spread to the country's central and northern regions, officials said Tuesday.

The armed forces have begun helping with clean-up operations in the devastated southern town of Chokwe, which has borne the brunt of the flooding caused by heavy rains.

"We can confirm the army is helping support the affected people," said Benjamim Chabualo, spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence told AFP.

Soldiers have also been involved in rescue efforts and the navy has ferried people by boat to reach areas isolated by flooding.

According to UN figures around 250,000 people have been affected by the floods and 146,000 people are being housed in temporary shelters.

Water levels have begun to recede in the south of the country, but the situation remains critical, and the centre and north are expected to be hit by fresh rain.

In Chokwe many homes have been completely inundated, and the flood surge has left in its wake piles of rubbish, mud and the detritus of lives destroyed.

"In Chokwe families have begun cleaning their homes and (the national civil protection unit) will help the municipality to clean the city," civil protection spokeswoman Rita Almeida said.

Even as the floods ebb in some places, residents faced a tough slog to get clean food, water, shelter and avoid a legion of risks.

"The rains over southern Mozambique have ceased for the time being, and the floodwaters are slowly receding. However, many have lost everything in the floods," according to a UN situation report.

At least 48 people have died, some electrocuted by severed power lines trailing in the water, some crushed by collapsed buildings and some attacked by crocodiles

At temporary shelters aid agencies are feeding approximately 70,000 people.

While tens of thousands of people have made their way to government camps, many more have not.

"We know there are a great many people affected who did not turn up at these centres," said Rita Almeida, Mozambique's national disaster management institute.

Some may have gone to the houses of family and friends, others, in more remote regions, remained stranded.

Helicopters are airlifting food and medical supplies to isolated areas.

"We are lifting supplies to places… where neither boats or vehicles can enter," the Director-General of Mozambique's Disaster Management Institute (INGC) said on national radio.

"We are doing all in our power to get food to people where they need it."

The entire south and centre of the country is still on red alert for floods although authorities say water levels on main rivers are gradually dropping.

Authorities are monitoring the central Sofala and Zambezia provinces which have been registering rains.

"The forecast is it could keep raining for the next 48 hours and that the rain is moving north," Almeida said.

"We appeal to people to take precautions, particularly in houses made of material that is vulnerable to floods."

Some residents have refused to leave their homes out of fear of looting.

"If they stay on top of houses they can't benefit from aid. They prefer staying until the water goes down," Chokwe mayor, Jorge Macuácua told AFP.

- AFP/RELIEFWEB

Brand in Franschhoek-gebied woed steeds

Kaapstad – Brandslaners probeer steeds om 'n wegholbrand in die Wemmershoekberge tussen Franschhoek en die Paarl onder beheer te bring, berig die SABC.

Talle brandslaners asook vier helikopters het Dinsdagaand die vlamme in hoë temperature, sterk wind en swak sigbaarheid bestry. Meer as 7 000 hektaar landbougrond en indringerplantegroei is sedert Sondag verwoes.

Roysten Harris, stasiebevelvoerder van die Kaapse Wynland-distriksmunisipaliteit se brandweerdiens, het Dinsdagaand gesê die brand beweeg in die rigting van die Du Toitskloofpas naby die Paarl.

"Die brand is steeds buite beheer. Ons gaan ons spanne strategies stel om die brand te bestry. Ons sal ons helikopters so laat as moontlik gebruik om eiendom en lewens te beskerm."

Honderde lede van Werk met Vuur is Dinsdag na die Boland ontplooi, waar 'n wegholbrand eiendomme in Franschhoek en die Paarl bedreig.

Rampbestuurbeamptes in die Wes-Kaap het gesê hulle sal slegs inwoners in die Paarl vra om te ontruim indien dit absoluut nodig is.

"Dit is duidelik 'n baie hoërisiko-dorp. So inwoners moet ag slaan op die waarskuwings, maar in die stadium is daar nie 'n direkte versoek om die dorp te ontruim nie."

– Nuus24

Gift of the Givers: Relief Aid Mozambique

HUMANITARIAN AID DEPARTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE 

Greetings of Peace

Dear Recipients

Loading for Mozambique flood victims commences at our Bramley warehouse at 2pm today.  The SANDF will arrive with five 30 ton trucks for the purpose.  They will be accompanied by generals and other personnel.  Gift of the Givers vehicles will also be involved in the transportation of the emergency supplies.  A convoy of about 20 vehicles will depart from the military airforce base at 4am tomorrow.  An ambulance and a combined Gift of the Givers/SANDF medical team will be an integral part of the mission.


Food, water, water purification tablets (to purify 2 million litres of water), high energy ready to eat supplements, blankets, new clothing and new shoes will comprise the 200 ton aid package.  Our teams are on the ground since Monday in the Chokwe district where about 150 000 hungry and thirsty displaced civilians are eagerly awaiting international assistance. We envisage feeding 30 000 people a day for the next few days with the hope that they will be returning to their homes soon as the water subsides.  Storage facilities and a camp site are being arranged with the Mozambican authorities at Chokwe.

Public support for the Mozambican people is welcome.  Details 0800 786 911.

Imtiaz Sooliman
Gift of the Givers

Ramp dreig in Kaapse Wynland-distrik

Kaapstad – Brande wat deur die Kaapse Wynland-distrik versprei, het vrese van 'n ekologiese ramp laat ontstaan, is Woensdag berig.

Owerhede het R1 miljoen bestee om brande in die Wemmershoek-berge naby Franschhoek te bestry, het die Cape Times berig.

"Die meeste van die veld in die gebied is tussen agt en 12 jaar oud. Dit moet minstens elke 17 jaar om te regenereer," het Deon Rossouw, bedryfsbestuurder van Werk met Vuur, gesê.

"Die brand sal waarskynlik die meeste van die veld vernietig."

Brandslaners probeer steeds om 'n wegholbrand in die Wemmershoekberge tussen Franschhoek en die Paarl onder beheer te bring, berig die SABC.

Talle brandslaners asook vier helikopters het Dinsdagaand die vlamme in hoë temperature, sterk wind en swak sigbaarheid bestry. Meer as 7 000 hektaar landbougrond en indringerplantegroei is sedert Sondag verwoes.

Roysten Harris, stasiebevelvoerder van die Kaapse Wynland-distriksmunisipaliteit se brandweerdiens, het Dinsdagaand gesê die brand beweeg in die rigting van die Du Toitskloofpas naby die Paarl.



- SAPA/Nuus24

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 30 January 2013 04h00 SAST

• Current warning: Eastern Cape
• Updated: 30/01/2013 05:08:55
• Validity: 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-30
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Heavy falls of rain
• Detail: Heavy falls of rain are possible over the northern parts.

• Current warning: Free State
• Updated: 30/01/2013 05:08:55
• Validity: 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-30
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Heavy rains over the central and eastern parts
• Detail: Heavy falls of rain are possible over the south-eastern parts.

• Current warning: Kwazulu Natal
• Updated: 30/01/2013 05:08:55
• Validity: 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-30
• Type: Watch. Be prepared
• Subject: Severe thunderstorms
• Detail: Severe thunderstorms are possible in the southwest. Heavy rains are possible over the eastern parts of the province on Thursday.

• Current warning: All other Provinces
• Updated: 30/01/2013 05:08:55
• Validity: 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-30
• No warnings nor advisories in effect
• Subject: No Alerts
• Detail: No Alerts.

- SAWS

SA Weather Satellite Image: 30 January 2013 07h45 SAST

- SAT24 (Click on image for larger view.)

Possible 24 Hour Rainfall: South Africa

- 1stweather.com

GFS Medium Range Forecasts of Vertical Velocity and Precipitation: South Africa

- U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

SA Sea Level Synoptic Chart: 30 January 2013

- SAWS

More teams called in as Cape fire rages

January 29 2013 at 10:47pm

Johannesburg - More firefighting teams will be brought in to assist as the blaze in the Western Cape winelands continues, Working on Fire (WoF) said on Tuesday.

WoF spokesperson Linton Rensburg said a meeting of disaster management teams, firefighters and government officials on Tuesday afternoon decided that 10 more firefighting teams should be brought in.

“The 10 teams come from across the country and by tomorrow we should have around 395 more firefighters here,” he said.

A total of 14 teams had initially been deployed to fight the blaze.

Five other teams that had been on standby were brought in from the Eastern Cape and Free State on Tuesday morning, said Rensburg.

While the fire in the Cederberg mountains was contained in the early hours of the morning, Rensburg said they were still battling with the one in the Franschhoek area.

“We are working around the clock. We have helicopters and water bombers deployed,” he said.

Around 10 helicopter water bombers, eight spotter planes, eight fixed wing water bombers and 37 pilots have been deployed by WoF to fight the fires.

- Sapa/IOL

Close-up of Flooding in Mozambique

In January 2013, torrential rains pushed the Limpopo River over its banks in southern Mozambique, inundating homes and agricultural fields. As of January 29, 2013, the Associated Press reported, 38 people had been killed and 150,000 had been displaced.

Among the areas hardest hit by the floods was the city of Chókwé, situated west of a bend in the Limpopo River. These images compare the flood conditions with relatively normal conditions for the season. Both images are from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA’s Terra satellite. The top image was acquired on January 25, 2013, and the bottom image was acquired on February 11, 2005.

ASTER combines infrared, red, and green wavelengths of light, and these images approximate but do not match natural color. Green indicates vegetation. Dark blue indicates water that is largely free of sediment. Sediment-rich water appears in shades of lavender and pink-tan.

In February 2005, the Limpopo River was safely confined to its narrow, meandering channel, away from the city and the nearby agricultural fields. Some water might have lingered from a previous flood, however, suggested by the dark blue rectangles in the lower right corner of the image. In January 2013, flood water from the Limpopo overwhelmed Chókwé, extending south and west past the city, filling a river channel in the west, and inundating agricultural fields.

Flooding rivers carry heavy loads of sediment. In January 2013, lavender and pink-tan both indicate sediment-rich water, but the water closer to the main river channel likely carries a heavier sediment load than the lavender-colored water farther away. Some water sitting on agricultural fields in the southeast appears sediment-free (dark blue), as does some water in river channels in the west (image lower left and right).

According to a United Nations bulletin issued on January 24, residents had started to evacuate the cities of Chókwé and nearby Guija, but many residents who stayed behind were stranded on rooftops awaiting rescue. Water rose rapidly between January 23 and 24, driven partly by saturated soils that could not absorb any more water and partly by an unstable levee that had been damaged by a tropical storm in 2012.
Flood conditions affected other parts of the Mozambique province of Gaza, including the cities of Bilene and Xai-Xai (visible in a wider view of the region). Flooding also affected the countries of Zimbabwe, Botswana, and South Africa.

1. References

2. Musiya, T., Associated Press. (2013, January 29) UN: Mozambique Floods Displace 150k, Leave 38 Dead. ABC News. Accessed January 29, 2013.
3. United Nations. (2013, January 24) Mozambique: Flooding - Office of the Resident Coordinator, Situation Report No. 2. ReliefWeb. Accessed January 29, 2013.
4. United Nations. (2013, January 25) Flood Waters Over Chokwe, Guika, Bilene, and Xai-Xai Districts, Gaza Province, Mozambique. ReliefWeb. Accessed January 29, 2013.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using data from NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team. Caption by Michon Scott with information from Michael Abrams, Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Instrument: 

Terra - ASTER - NASA

Tropical Cyclone Felleng

Felleng formed as a tropical storm over the southern Indian Ocean on January 26, 2013, and strengthened into a cyclone on January 29. That day, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Felleng was located roughly 420 nautical miles (780 kilometers) north of Réunion Island. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 90 knots (170 kilometers per hour), with gusts up to 110 knots (205 kilometers per hour). Over the next 36 hours, wind speeds were forecast to increase to 115 knots (215 kilometers per hour) with gusts up to 140 knots (260 kilometers per hour).

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image of Felleng off the east coast of Madagascar on January 29. The JTWC projected storm track showed Felleng moving southward over the Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar and west of Réunion, then veering slightly toward the southeast. Although the center of the storm was expected to remain off Madagascar’s coast, storm clouds could easily extend over the eastern reaches of the island.

1. References

2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Accessed January 29, 2013.
3. Unisys Weather. (2013, January 29) Felleng Tracking Information. Accessed January 29, 2013.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Aqua - MODIS - NASA

Snow across Great Britain

Snow blanketed most of Great Britain in late January 2013, stretching from London to the northern tip of Scotland. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image on January 26, 2013. Only some coastal areas and the southwestern part of the island were free of snow when MODIS took this picture. Skies had mostly cleared by the time MODIS acquired the image, but some clouds lingered in the west, casting shadows onto the snowy surface below.
On January 25, The Telegraph reported that the death toll from the storm was in the double digits, some of the deaths resulting from hazardous driving conditions. As of that date, more snowfall was expected, including near-blizzard conditions in parts of Scotland. Forecasters called for rain to follow the snow, with as much as 40 millimeters (1.6 inches) of rain in western Britain.

1. References

2. Morris, S. (2013, January 24) Heavy rain and melting snow expected to cause floods. The Guardian. Accessed January 28, 2013.
3. Philipson, A. (2013, January 25) Final heavy snowfall to hit before floods. The Telegraph. Accessed January 28, 2013.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Terra - MODIS - NASA

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 13S Felleng

291500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SYMMETRICAL, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED 22-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, FIMP, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
FURTHERMORE, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24,
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 13S TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY AN OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, TC FELLENG WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE VORTEX TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 30 FEET.

- JTWC + Eumetsat