Tropical Storm Tim

Tropical Storm Tim formed over the Coral Sea on March 13, 2013, and remained off the coast of northeastern Australia for the next four days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image of Tim on March 17. Although lacking a distinct eye, Tim still had the spiral shape characteristic of strong storms.
Unisys Weather reported that Tim’s wind speeds rose to 55 knots (100 kilometers per hour) on March 14, but by March 17, speeds had dropped to 35 knots (65 kilometers per hour).
Another image of Tim, acquired on March 14, is available from the LANCE MODIS Rapid Response site.

1. References

2. Unisys Weather (2013, March 18) Tim Tracking Information. Accessed March 18, 2013.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Terra - MODIS - NASA

Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories: South Indian Ocean

- JTWC + EUMETSAT

Tropical Cyclone Sandra

Sandra formed as a tropical storm over the southern Pacific Ocean on March 7, 2013, and strengthened into a cyclone two days later. On March 11, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Sandra was located roughly 350 nautical miles (650 kilometers) northwest of Nouméa, New Caledonia. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 90 knots (165 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 110 knots (205 kilometers per hour).
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image of Sandra on March 10. The eye of the cyclone was located northwest of New Caledonia and west of Vanuatu, and storm clouds spanned hundreds of kilometers.
Sandra had been moving toward the southeast, and the JTWC forecast that the storm would continue in that direction for the next few days, although it was expected to weaken considerably over the next day or so.

1. References

2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Accessed March 11, 2013.
3. Unisys Weather. (2013, March 11) Sandra Tracking Information. Accessed March 11, 2013.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Terra - MODIS - NASA

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems

 

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 72.7E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 74.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. 
A 060101Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER 
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

- JTWC + Eumetsat 

Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories

No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere.

- JTWC

Tropical Cyclone Rusty

On February 25, 2013, Tropical Cyclone Rusty was bearing down on the northwestern coast of Australia. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. Although Rusty lacked a distinct eye, the storm sported the spiral shape characteristic of strong storms.

On February 25, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Rusty was located roughly 370 nautical miles (685 kilometers) northeast of Learmonth. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 knots (110 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour). Over the next 24 hours, the JTWC forecast, sustained wind speeds could increase to 100 knots (185 kilometers per hour), and gusts could reach 125 knots (230 kilometers per hour). The storm was expected to make landfall east of Port Hedland on February 26.

1. References

2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Accessed February 22, 2013.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Terra - MODIS - NASA

Tropical Cyclone Haruna

Haruna formed as a tropical storm over the southern Indian Ocean on February 19, 2013, and strengthened into a cyclone the next day. On February 22, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Haruna was located roughly 300 nautical miles (555 kilometers) southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 100 knots (185 kilometers per hour).

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image of Haruna on February 22. MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites also captured earlier images of the storm, on February 21 and February 20.

As of February 22, 2013, the JTWC forecast map showed Haruna heading eastward across southern Madagascar then out to sea. The storm was expected to weaken significantly over the next 48 hours.

1. References

2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Accessed February 22, 2013.
3. Unisys Weather. (2013, February 22) Haruna Tracking Information. Accessed February 22, 2013.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Aqua - MODIS

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Final Update - Tropical Cyclone 16S (Haruna) Warning

 

250300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO DEEP 
CONVECTION. A 242151Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LLCC. A 241751Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED ONLY 
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 16S IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND APPEARS TO BE 
A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND AND INTO THE 
LLCC IN THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 WHILE TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A 
STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET.

- JTWC + Eumetsat

Madagascar: Tropical cyclone Haruna kills 10

-Tropical cyclone Haruna killed 10 people in Madagascar.
-The cyclone Haruna destroyed around 70 percent of the southwestern city of Morombe.
-This tropical disturbance is forecast to bring more rain in southern Madagascar in the coming two days.
-Cyclone Haruna landed 50 kilometers from Morombe at around 03:00 GMT on 22 February, 2013.  Cyclone Giovanna in Madagascar in 2012 killed several people.
Below is the five day forecast map of Tropical cyclone Haruna.

- Recent Natural Disasters + Weather Underground

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 16S (Haruna)

240300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 51.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS 
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 232322Z SSMI IMAGE, 
HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY, 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS. SATCON 
ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 45 KNOTS, WHICH FITS BETTER WITH THE OVERALL 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND WITH A 231812Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED 35 
TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ELONGATED LLCC EVIDENT IN RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 
WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER 
SST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, 
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 
REMNANTS OF TC 16S ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE 
AFTER TAU 48 AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET.

- JTWC + Eumetsat 

Tropical Cyclone Haruna

Haruna formed as a tropical storm over the southern Indian Ocean on February 19, 2013, and strengthened into a cyclone the next day. On February 22, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Haruna was located roughly 300 nautical miles (555 kilometers) southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 100 knots (185 kilometers per hour).

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image of Haruna on February 22. MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites also captured earlier images of the storm, on February 21 and February 20.
As of February 22, 2013, the JTWC forecast map showed Haruna heading eastward across southern Madagascar then out to sea. The storm was expected to weaken significantly over the next 48 hours.

1. References

2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Accessed February 22, 2013.
3. Unisys Weather. (2013, February 22) Haruna Tracking Information. Accessed February 22, 2013.

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument: 

Aqua - MODIS  - NASA

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm HARUNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 23 Feb, 2013 12:00 GMT


Tropical Storm HARUNA (16S) currently located near 25.4 S 48.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Image: SAT24

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm HARUNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 23 Feb, 2013 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HARUNA (16S) currently located near 24.3 S 46.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours
    Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    Betioky (23.7 S, 44.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 16S (Haruna)

230300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM 
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, A 222212Z AMSU IMAGE AND RECENT MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. 
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 222337Z 
SSMI IMAGE AND ANIMATED IR IMAGERY. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST 
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO 
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 
FLOW AS WELL AS COOLER SST (AFTER TAU 24), THEREFORE, TC 16S SHOULD 
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD 
MADAGASCAR AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AFTER 
TAU 48.

- JTWC + Eumetsat 

Tropical Storm Haruna (Southern Indian Ocean)

The MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured this visible image of Tropical Storm Haruna on Feb. 22 at 1105 UTC (6:05 a.m. EST). Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team


Cyclone Haruna Makes Landfall in Madagascar

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Cyclone Haruna after it made landfall in southwestern Madagascar.

Haruna's center made landfall near Manombo, Madagascar around 0600 UTC (1 a.m. EST/U.S.) The METEO-7 satellite captured a visible image of Haruna at the time of landfall and showed that its eye had already become cloud-filled.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Haruna on Feb. 22 at 1105 UTC (6:05 a.m. EST) after it moved inland and its eye was completed cloud-filled. MODIS imagery revealed that the size of the eye was smaller since the storm made landfall.

As a result of its interaction with land, Haruna's maximum sustained winds dropped to 80 knots by 1200 UTC (7 a.m. EST) on Feb. 22. Haruna's cloud-filled eye was centered near 23.3 south latitude and 44.2 east longitude, about 300 nautical miles southwest of Antananarivo, the capital and largest city in Madagascar. Haruna was moving to the south-southeast at 7 knots and dropping heavy rainfall along its path.

This night-time image revealed Cyclone Haruna's massive eye before it made landfall. This image was taken from the VIIRS instrument that flies aboard the NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP satellite. The image was taken on Feb. 20 at 2242 UTC (5:42 p.m. EST/U.S.) and shows a clear eye, surrounded by very powerful thunderstorms. Credit: Univ.of Wisconsin/NASA/NOAA

Radar at 10:30 a.m. EST (15:30 UTC) showed that Haruna's rainfall extends from the town of Belo Tsiribihina on Madagascar's west-central coast, east to the city of Fianarantsoa, and to the town of Taolagnaro on the southeastern coast.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted that as Haruna keeps moving over land, the effects of friction (the storm dragging over the land) will continue weakening the circulation.

Once Haruna moves back into the waters of the Southern Indian Ocean it will encounter cooler waters than helped fuel it in the Mozambique Channel. Haruna will also experience increasing wind shear from mid-latitude westerly winds that will weaken the storm further. The JTWC expects Haruna to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by sometime on Feb. 25 over the Southern Indian Ocean.

Text Credit: Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone HARUNA

South Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 22 Feb, 2013 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone HARUNA (16S) currently located near 23.0 S 43.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Betioky (23.7 S, 44.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone HARUNA

Image: SAT24 (Click on image for larger view.)

 South Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 22 Feb, 2013 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone HARUNA (16S) currently located near 22.2 S 43.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Betioky (23.7 S, 44.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 16S (Haruna)

220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 43.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A LARGE AND HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL 50-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A
202223Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO
THE EAST THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TRANSITING EASTWARD. TC 16S IS ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SSTS AFTER LAND
PASSAGE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC HARUNA WILL DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE LEFT AND WBAR
THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
30 FEET.

- JTWC + Eumetsat

Must see image of Tropical Cyclone Haruna - 21st Feb 2013

(Click on image for larger view.  However for best view copy image to personal image viewer. Absolutely amazing weather image.)

Tropical Cyclone Haruna tracks in an east, south-easterly direction over the Mozambique Channel off the south-west coast of Madagascar with a 10-minute average maximum wind speed of 80 knots (92.2 mph).

- University of Dundee (UK)

Tropical Storm Haruna (Southern Indian Ocean)

 

The MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured this visible image of Tropical Storm Haruna on Feb. 21 at 0735 UTC (2:35 a.m. EST). Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team

NASA Sees Cyclone Haruna Set its Eye on Madagascar

Residents of southwestern Madagascar were experiencing gusty winds, heavy rainfall and rough surf as Cyclone Haruna approaches for landfall on Feb. 21. NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of the storm that shows a clear and wide eye as the storm neared the southwestern coast of the island nation.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Haruna on Feb. 21 at 0735 UTC (2:35 a.m. EST) that showed a well-defined eye with deep convective banding of thunderstorms wrapping around the center.

At 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC) on Feb. 21, Haruna had maximum sustained winds near 100 knots (115 mph/185.2 kph). Haruna was centered near 22.3 south latitude and 42.1 east longitude, about 350 nautical miles (402.8 miles/648.2 km) southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, which lies far to the north of the storm. Haruna is already close enough to the southwestern coast, however, that thunderstorms and sustained winds near 30 mph (48.2 kph) were already being experienced.

It was moving very slowly at 3 knots (3.4 mph/5.5 kph) in a northeasterly direction, but is expected to turn to the southeast.

At 10:30 a.m. EST on Feb. 21, a weather station in Morombe, Madagascar, on the southwestern side of the island, reported thunderstorms with sustained northerly winds near 29 mph (46.6 kph). The local forecast calls for rainfall amounts up to 3.6 inches (91.4 mm) just on Feb. 21 as Haruna approaches.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) now forecasts a more inland track for Cyclone Haruna over southwestern Madagascar. The forecast calls for landfall Feb. 21 around 12 UTC (7 a.m. EST) and exit into the Southern Indian Ocean on the southeastern side of the island as a cyclone, about 24 hours later on Feb. 22.

Text Credit: Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.