230300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 46.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, A 222212Z AMSU IMAGE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 222337Z SSMI IMAGE AND ANIMATED IR IMAGERY. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS COOLER SST (AFTER TAU 24), THEREFORE, TC 16S SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 48.
- JTWC + Eumetsat
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