Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround

El Nino has meant drought dominated the Australian landscape until the big rains of the past few years. ABC TV, file image

The weather bureau is predicting a big change in Australia's weather forecast this summer, with an El Nino no longer expected.

Average rainfall is predicted in the coming months in the absence of El Nino - the climate pattern that brings drought-like conditions.

The chief climate forecaster says it is the biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.

In the 21st century, Australia's major weather pattern has been El Nino.

It has meant drought has dominated the landscape until the big rains of the past few years.

For climate forecasters, this summer was shaping up as deja vu, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting another El Nino.

The bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, has changed the forecast.

"Come September, all of a sudden, the temperature started to cool down, the trade winds started to become a little bit enhanced, and the cloud patterns and other indicators like that headed away from El Nino," he said.

"So this is what we're looking at as climatologists, giving us the heads up about what may happen over the next few months, and indeed what we're seeing now is a backing off from those El Nino thresholds."

Dr Watkins says they are not sure why there has been a cooling down.

"It actually is quite a unique situation if we end up not going into an El Nino event," he said.

"It'll sort of be the biggest turnaround that we've actually seen in our records going back to about 1950, so quite unprecedented."

Warming in the Pacific Ocean as recently as August pointed to another El Nino weather event, but the forecasters witnessed a huge turnaround.

While it is good news, they say they have never seen conditions change so quickly.

"When we go and look at our records of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, we really haven't reached the level that we reached, say, in early September, and then turned around away from El Nino," Dr Watkins said.

"Every time we've got that close to an El Nino, it's actually settled in and indeed September, October is the normal time things bed down with these events.

"We actually haven't seen a turnaround quite like that."

No El Nino means it is more likely to rain across much of the country.

"And we're looking at actually increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall totals through much of the Northern Territory, northwest Kimberly and WA, and even into western Queensland as well," Dr Watkins added.
Grain of salt

But a lot of farmers take these sorts of predictions with a grain of salt.

Andrew Weidemann, the president of the Victorian Farmers Federation's Grains Group, runs a mixed farm in the state's north-west.

"The weather bureau tend to put out these predictions, but I guess in the farming sector what we deal with is results," he said.

"The results we're looking for are moisture at the critical times of the season to try and produce as much as we possibly can."

Much further north, the change is pointing to a good wet season in the vast grazing country across the Top End.

Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association executive director Luke Bowen says the forecast is good news.

"Good news for the monsoon region, given that there had been predictions that it was going to be a very, very late wet," he said.

"It's also potentially good news for those areas south of the tropic, where we've had a run of a couple of good years through central Australia, through the arid zone."

- ABC NEWS

El Nino back soon

Geneva - The El Nino weather phenomenon could return within days but will be relatively weak compared with past episodes, the UN's weather agency said on Tuesday.

The surface of the Pacific warmed in July and August, providing part of the mix necessary for El Nino to develop, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

There is a "moderately high likelihood for El Nino conditions to develop during September or October", the WMO said.

If it does develop, "it is most likely to be weak", the agency said, adding that it did not exclude "a moderate strength event" lasting into early 2013.

El Nino occurs every two to seven years, when the trade winds that circulate surface water in the tropical Pacific start to weaken.

A mass of warm water builds in the western Pacific and eventually rides over to the eastern side of the ocean.

The outcome is a major shift in rainfall, bringing floods and mudslides to usually arid countries in western South America and drought in the western Pacific, as well as a change in nutrient-rich ocean currents that lure fish.

It last occurred from June 2009 to May 2010, the Geneva-based agency said.

El Nino is followed by a return swing of the pendulum, a phenomenon called La Nina, which was declared over in April.

"No two El Ninos are the same," WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis told AFP.

Even if conditions are ripe for another episode, "you can't say such and such a part of the world will be in drought... when a lot of other [weather] factors have an impact".

- AFP/News24

Droogte wag op SA, sê weerkenner oor El Niño wat op pad is

JOHANNESBURG. – Daar is ’n 80%-kans dat die El Niño-weerverskynsel Suid-Afrika gaan tref.

Dit beteken waarskynlik dat September, Oktober en November baie nat gaan wees, maar dat droogte in Desember, Januarie, Februarie en Maart aanstaande jaar gaan intree, het Johan van den Berg, bestuurder: gespesialiseerde gewas-versekering van Santam Agri in Bloemfontein, gister gesê.

Hy het op ’n landbou-vooruitskouingskonferensie in Pretoria gesê weervoorspellers se selfvertroue is deesdae baie laag omdat hulle verkeerde voorspellings doen.

Aan die begin van die jaar het hulle voorspel Februarie en Maart vanjaar gaan nat wees. “En toe was dit al die tyd droog. Dit was dus ’n heeltemal verkeerde voorspelling.”

Van den Berg meen egter sy voorspelling dat ’n El Niño-weerverskynsel op pad is, is 80% korrek.

Hy het graanboere gewaarsku om nie te gou opgewonde te raak as baie reën in die eerste drie maande van die somerseisoen val nie omdat die droogte direk daarop kan volg.

Volgens Van den Berg is dit deesdae baie moeilik om akkurate voorspellings te maak omdat die klimaat onvoorspelbaar geraak het.

Hy het ook gewaarsku dat siklone wat in die Indiese Oseaan ontstaan die ooste van die land weer soos begin vanjaar kan tref.

Die siklone ontstaan omdat die temperature in die oseaan styg. Dit wil voorkom asof dit vanjaar weer gaan gebeur, het hy gesê.

Jerry Norton, Amerikaanse graananalis en lid van die Wêreld-Landbou-vooruitskattingsraad, het gesê die droogte wat Amerika se mieliesektor in Junie, Julie en Augustus getref het, bied groot geleenthede vir Suid-Afrika om ’n groter rol in die uitvoermark van dié gewas te speel.

Norton het die droogte en die gepaardgaande hoë temperature as vernietigend beskryf.

Hy het gesê in die laaste vier jaar het die vraag na mielies in die wêreld die aanbod verreweg oorskry.

Ken Su van PricewaterhouseCoopers se kantoor in China het gesê dié land is nou amptelik Suid-Afrika se grootste handelsvennoot.

“Die geleenthede om voedsel van goeie gehalte na China uit te voer is legio.”

China se 1,35miljard mense moet gevoed word en die land produseer nie genoeg om in die vraag te voorsien nie.

Welvaart in China is aan die toeneem, het hy gesê. Die helfte van die bevolking gaan eet een tot drie keer per week uit en 26,4% besoek restaurante vier tot ses keer per week. Altesaam 15% van die bevolking eet elke dag uit, het hy gesê.

“Hulle hou van goeie, gesonde kos.”

- Volksblad

El Nino on a deadly war path

Paris - Forest and land fires in Southeast Asia kill an additional 15,000 people annually when the El Nino weather phenomenon grips the region, scientists have estimated.

The deaths are caused by higher particle pollution and higher local levels of ozone, both of which are stressors for the lungs and heart, they said.

Environmental scientists in the United States looked at airborne levels of particles from fires in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006.

The fires are annual events, set by local farmers to clear fields or forests.

But in dry conditions, the fires can ignite carbon-rich peatland soil that can burn uncontrollably for months.

The risk was highest in years of El Nino, the disruptive weather pattern that causes drought and dryness in the tropical western Pacific but heavy rainfall or flooding on the ocean's eastern side.

During the period under study, there were three El Ninos - a whopper in 1997-1998 that was the strongest of the 20th century, followed by a second in 2002-3 and a third that began in 2006.

At these times, particle emissions from land fires were up to 50 times greater than during the La Nina phase, when the pendulum swing of El Nino goes into reverse and the tropical west Pacific becomes wet.

During strong El Ninos, fires accounted for 200 days when air pollution exceeded guidelines by the UN's World Health Organisation (WHO) for fine particulate matter, according to the mathematical model.

These particles, which measure less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter, are dangerous for health because they can pass through the nose and throat and lodge in the lungs.

When extrapolated for the region's 540 million people, many of them living in cities close to the fires, particulate pollution caused an average rise of 10,800 in annual deaths from cardiovascular causes during the El Nino years.

Added to that, said the study, are a likely 4,100 deaths annually from ozone.

A triple-atom molecule of oxygen, ozone is beneficial in the upper atmosphere where it provides a shield from harmful ultraviolet.

At ground level, however, it irritates the airways, causing a shortage of breath, coughing and chest pains, thus posing a threat to the elderly and people with cardiac and respiratory problems.

The findings should put pressure on authorities to prevent deforestation and damaging fires, especially in the context of climate change which could accentuate El Nino droughts, said the paper.

The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, was headed by Miriam Marlier at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York.

- Sapa-AFP

Scarce Rain in India Hits Farmers, Power Supply

Amarnath Sharma has waited weeks for rains to soak his parched rice paddies so that he can start planting. He is one of millions of farmers across India who are hoping and praying for elusive monsoon showers.

But their hopes are being dashed this season: India's Meteorological Department says it expects the country to get at least 10 percent less rain this year than normal during the June-to-September monsoon.

The shortfall also is expected to swell electricity demand in a power-starved nation as farmers turn to irrigation pumps to keep their fields watered. Earlier this week, three of India's regional electricity grids failed for hours in a blackout that affected a swath of the country with about 620 million people.

In a statement late Thursday, the department said rains between June and Aug. 1 have been 19 percent below normal. The remaining August to September monsoon will also be weak because of the impact of warming of the central Pacific Ocean, known as the El Nino, the agency said.

Several Indian states have already declared near-drought conditions and are demanding extra federal funds or announcing large subsidies to help farmers buy diesel fuel to generate electricity to irrigate their fields.

Officials in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh — India's most populous — fear that a drought is around the corner.

Sharma, a rice farmer in the state, said if it doesn't rain in the next few days he'll to forgo a rice crop this year.

"At this time of the year we generally make preparations to tackle floods but paucity of rain has raised an apprehension about drought engulfing the major part of the state," state Agriculture Production Commissioner Alok Ranjan told The Associated Press in the state capital Lucknow on Friday.

In the western state of Gujarat, Bharat, who goes by one name, has waited a long time for his thirsty fields to be quenched.

"We are tired of looking at the sky, but the rain just doesn't fall," he said.

In the country's eastern state of Bihar, at least eight out of 38 districts have received rains 70 percent below normal, said Anil Kumar Jha, the deputy director of the state's agriculture department. Jha said the state is spending 6.19 billion rupees ($112 million) on subsidizing diesel so that farmers could generate electricity to draw up ground water.

Several other states — Haryana and Punjab in the north, Maharashtra in the west and the southern state of Karnataka — have all recorded poor rainfall. These states grow a large amount of the country's rice, wheat, oilseeds and cereals.

A poor monsoon sends ripples across the Indian economy because about 60 percent of the country's population works in agriculture and over half of the farmlands are rain-fed with much of the rest irrigated from rapidly depleting underground aquifers. The sector contributes up to 20 percent to India's gross domestic product.

A poor monsoon also can worsen inflation of food prices.

"If the government doesn't help us we will die of hunger. There's no water to drink and no food to eat," said Bharat, the farmer from western India.

- ABC News

Australia says higher chance of El Nino weather pattern

(Reuters) - Australia's weather bureau said on Tuesday that climate indicators show an increased chance of an El Nino weather pattern, often linked to heavy rainfall and droughts, returning later this year.

The data predicted an El Nino could return sometime between mid-winter and spring this year in the southern hemisphere, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.

El Nino, also called "Little Boy" or "Christ Child", is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific.

The pattern typically brings below average rainfall for the Asia Pacific region, threatening the yields of agricultural crops, while America is often hit by wetter than average weather.

"Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm over the past fortnight, while trade winds have remained weaker than normal," the weather bureau said.

"Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has become more strongly negative over the past month."

The index, which is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Nino events in the Pacific Ocean.

Sea surface temperatures in the far eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 1 degree Celsius warmer than usual in June, the weather bureau said.

- Reuters

Climate models still see El Nino returning: Australia

(Reuters) - Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said climate models it surveys continue to indicate a return of an El Nino weather pattern, often linked to heavy rainfall and droughts, later this year.

In its updated outlook, the bureau said the Pacific Ocean continues to warm, albeit still within the normal range, and its forecasts indicate this trend will continue, with conditions likely to approach or exceed the El Nino thresholds by the end of winter.

"When compared to April, the ocean has cooled slightly in the far eastern Pacific and along the west coast of South America. However, water along the coast of South America remains more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual in areas," the bureau said.

- Reuters

El Niño's Odds at 50% for 2012

There's a 50 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012, the National Weather Service announced today (June 7).

When El Niño conditions are in place, water temperatures in the tropical Pacific are warmer than normal, which has far-reaching consequences for climate and weather patterns around the globe.

The prediction follows the end of a La Niña cycle — the "opposite" of El Niño, with cooler-than-average surface waters — which has prevailed for much of the last two years. This La Niña cycle had a substantial impact on the extreme winter weather of 2010-2011, as well as last spring's terrible tornado season. La Niña conditions may have helped bring about some of the massive snows that blanketed much of the northern United States last winter, but its waning may actually have been the culprit in ramping up the tornado season.

ENSO-neutral conditions have been in place since May (ENSO refers to the El Niño-La Niña climate cycle), which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects to last throughout the summer. After September, the models scientists use to make predictions diverge, with roughly half predicting continued neutral conditions and half favoring continued warming associated with El Niño.

The low-level trade winds and convection over the central equatorial Pacific were near average during May, measures that indicate neutral conditions.

If El Niño conditions develop, the northern United States could be in for a warmer and drier winter than average, while the Southwest and Southeast could find itself with more rain than usual.

- OurAmazingPlanet