Yesterday the gale force winds that were experienced in Cape Town wreaked havoc.
GARDENS: The winds have blown down trees at the Mount Nelson Hotel, Orange Street in Gardens.
BERGVLIET: A tree had fallen resulting in the obstruction of traffic adjacent to 13 Fountain Road, Bergvliet.
OTTERY: A tree was blown down touching on overhead electricity wires resulting in arching at 1 Wegner Avenue, Ottery.
CONSTANTIA: The wind blown down branches and a tree onto the roadway causing traffic congestion at 1 Dreyer Close, Constantia.
CONSTANTIA: A tree standing on the greenbelt has fallen over that resulted in damaging a boundary wall and an electric fence. The City of Cape Town will be clearing the area today as the owner was not present to gain access to the premises.
TOKAI: A tree fell over obstructing the roadway near 47 Zwaanswyk Road, Tokai.
The City’s law enforcement authorities closed off the roadways and redirected traffic to make use of alternative routes in the interest of public safety.
The standby teams of the City’s Parks Department were activated that cleared up the branches blown down and trees that were fallen.
In another incident a wendy house collapsed due to strong winds at St Yusuf Street Macassar yesterday afternoon. The City’s disaster response teams assisted the family consisting of 3 adults and 1 child with food parcels, clothing, blankets and building material.
End
Issued by: Disaster Risk Management Centre, City of Cape Town
Wilfred Solomons-Johannes, Head: Systems Integration, Special Projects & Disaster Operations, Disaster Risk Management Centre, City of Cape Town
The effects of severe weather are felt every year by many South Africans. To obtain critical weather information, the SAWDOS use voluntary weather observers. These volunteers help keep their local communities safe and informed by providing timely and accurate reports of severe weather to the SAWDOS for publication on the Blog. The SAWDOS is a non-profit organization that renders a FREE COMMUNITY-BASED SERVICE.
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Showing posts with label Severe Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Severe Weather. Show all posts
Sunday, 31 March 2013
Saturday, 30 March 2013
Cold-front SW-Cape, and weak upper air trough (30 March - 2 April 2013)
The appearance of the deep frontal-low (bottom image) and cold-core upper trough (top image) is quite obvious from this mornings satellite images. We could be in for and interesting weekend. First real winter cold front approaching? Dropping temperatures? Strong South Easterly Wind? Possible Cut Off Low? Thunderstorms to the East? Heavy Rain? This Easter weekend might just be the turn from Autumn to an early Winter spell.
All SAWDOS Weather Observers and non SAWDOS weather observers are hereby requested to report severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and other adverse weather conditions in their area of observation. Be alert and send observations to the SAWDOS as we will in turn publish the observations to the benefit of the general public.
There is really no better way than real time weather observations by the public when it comes to reporting severe weather in an area.
Send information to:
SMS, MMS messages to: 076 251 3482 (only text messages)
Email photos and information by clicking HERE.
If you observe any strange weather or disaster send the info to the SAWDOS for publication. Do not assume that the SAWDOS knows for certain that severe weather has occurred in your area. Never assume that your weather observation report is not important.
We also remind our readers that the SAWDOS utilize the following social media formats to keep our readers informed :
SA Weather and Disaster Observation Service Blog - http://sawdis1.blogspot.com/
SAWDOS Twitter - http://sawdis1.blogspot.com/p/sawdis-twitter.html
SAWDOS Facebook Group - http://www.facebook.com/groups/374316165928426/
Please note that any of the above could be used during severe weather to keep the public informed or to notify the SAWDOS of an event.
Johan Terblanche
Founder: SA Weather and Disaster Observation Service
Mossel Bay
30 March 2013
Monday, 18 March 2013
USA HAM Radio Users Prep for Severe Weather Season
Severe weather season is right around the corner and that means USA HAM radio users are dusting off their gear and gearing up for the coming storms.
The Nebraska HAM radio state convention is underway at the Lancaster Event Center.
HAM radios can make contact over short distances, like inside a room, or long distances, like around the world.
That versatility make them ideal for severe weather spotting and response.
At the state convention, HAM operators are brushing up on their hobby and stocking up on new equipment.
It's all part of their commitment to being ready, if and when disaster strikes.
Lincoln Amateur Radio Club Vice President Mike Walsh says we have lots of ways to communicate, whether via cell phone, texting or email, but they're not always reliable.
Walsh says, "In a real emergency, a lot of those services are not available - they're wiped out or we've lost power or whatever. But the HAM radio community works and practices to be able to provide communication in a disaster scenario."
HAM operators must be licensed by the FCC and must also be trained to take part in storm spotting.
VIDEO AVAILABLE BY CLICKING HERE.
- 1011 News
Photos of debris give researchers insight into tornados
Photos and mementos that were snatched up and blown hundreds of miles during tornados in the south of the United States two years ago are giving researchers new insight on how debris is carried by the storms and how it could threaten the public.
A new study has documented how one photo travelled nearly 355 kilometres over Alabama and Tennessee, said John Knox, an associate professor of geography at the University of Georgia who led the research. That is among the longest-documented trajectories of tornado debris.
The slightly scratched snapshot, which shows a stream flowing through a mountainous landscape, travelled from the northwest Alabama town of Phil Campbell to the east Tennessee town of Lenoir City.
The study was recently published online by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
It tracked the direction the items travelled in relation to the storms that struck Alabama and other Southern states on April 27, 2011.
The researchers analysed the takeoff and landing points of the items using geography software and mathematical models.
Most debris fell slightly to the left of the storm's track. But the items that travelled the farthest were found to the right of the path.
Knowing where the debris is likely to fall could help protect the public if a tornado were to strike a hazardous site and suck up toxic biological or radioactive debris, Knox said.
"We need to get enough understanding so we can get fairly reasonable predictions of where the stuff goes," said John Snow, a professor of meteorology and dean emeritus at the University of Oklahoma who studied tornado debris in the 1990s. Knox's study builds on research done by Snow and others.
Though nuclear reactors are designed to withstand the force of tornadoes, radioactive materials such as fuel rods are often stored nearby, Snow said. A direct hit on such material is one of many catastrophic scenarios involving tornado-blown debris.
Tornadoes have struck toxic materials in the past. In May 2008, a twister slammed into some of the mountains of mining waste that dot the landscape of Oklahoma's Tar Creek Superfund site.
Joshua Wurman, an atmospheric scientist who founded the Center for Severe Weather Research in Boulder, Colorado, was not involved in the Georgia research but thinks it could have benefits.
"Let's say a tornado struck some kind of toxic waste dump. Sure, some of the debris or dust would have some contaminants in that," Wurman said. "Understanding which direction those contaminants would go could be useful."
The 934 objects studied by Knox and his students were posted on a Facebook page and later claimed by their owners.
Patty Bullion created the site hours after the tornadoes struck, when several photos and scraps of paper were found in her neighbourhood in the northern Alabama town of Lester. She began posting the pictures on her site. Around 2,000 of those photos and documents eventually were claimed by their owners and returned to them. That gave the researchers a gold mine of raw data on which to build.
"I was very thankful that the page could be a help," Bullion said. "I never dreamed that it would send as many pictures home as it did and then help with research like that. God works in mysterious ways."
Bullion has since taken down the Facebook site. The items pictured there are highly personal, she said, and she didn't want them to be on Facebook forever.
The historic 2011 tornado outbreak in the South, combined with Bullion's social media effort, represented a unique opportunity for the new study, Knox said.
On April 27, 2011, more than 120 tornadoes caused more than 300 deaths across the South.
The items studied from the 2011 outbreak represent "just a small cross section of debris that just carpeted the Southeast," said Knox. "What was amazing was that there was so much debris that went so far."
An earlier study on tornado debris by Snow and his colleagues identified only two objects that had travelled about 215 kilometres. By contrast, the Georgia study identified 44 items that travelled a comparable distance or farther.
The nearly 220 miles covered by the landscape photo sucked up by one of the Alabama tornadoes rivals the path taken by a cancelled check from Stockton, Kansas, which was struck by a tornado in 1991. The check was carried 359 kilometres from Kansas to a farm near Winnetoon, Nebraska, according to records from the World Meteorological Organization.
Knox said the response from his students, who became co-authors of the research paper, was phenomenal.
Knox said he sought to teach them how to conduct the research in a way that was ethical and sensitive to the victims since the tornadoes destroyed lives and homes.
"Hopefully that's a message that the students will take with them," he said. "In this case, we had people whose houses were destroyed and the family members killed and the only thing they may have gotten back was a picture of Grandma and Grandpa that went 150 miles into another state."
- Times Live
A new study has documented how one photo travelled nearly 355 kilometres over Alabama and Tennessee, said John Knox, an associate professor of geography at the University of Georgia who led the research. That is among the longest-documented trajectories of tornado debris.
The slightly scratched snapshot, which shows a stream flowing through a mountainous landscape, travelled from the northwest Alabama town of Phil Campbell to the east Tennessee town of Lenoir City.
The study was recently published online by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
It tracked the direction the items travelled in relation to the storms that struck Alabama and other Southern states on April 27, 2011.
The researchers analysed the takeoff and landing points of the items using geography software and mathematical models.
Most debris fell slightly to the left of the storm's track. But the items that travelled the farthest were found to the right of the path.
Knowing where the debris is likely to fall could help protect the public if a tornado were to strike a hazardous site and suck up toxic biological or radioactive debris, Knox said.
"We need to get enough understanding so we can get fairly reasonable predictions of where the stuff goes," said John Snow, a professor of meteorology and dean emeritus at the University of Oklahoma who studied tornado debris in the 1990s. Knox's study builds on research done by Snow and others.
Though nuclear reactors are designed to withstand the force of tornadoes, radioactive materials such as fuel rods are often stored nearby, Snow said. A direct hit on such material is one of many catastrophic scenarios involving tornado-blown debris.
Tornadoes have struck toxic materials in the past. In May 2008, a twister slammed into some of the mountains of mining waste that dot the landscape of Oklahoma's Tar Creek Superfund site.
Joshua Wurman, an atmospheric scientist who founded the Center for Severe Weather Research in Boulder, Colorado, was not involved in the Georgia research but thinks it could have benefits.
"Let's say a tornado struck some kind of toxic waste dump. Sure, some of the debris or dust would have some contaminants in that," Wurman said. "Understanding which direction those contaminants would go could be useful."
The 934 objects studied by Knox and his students were posted on a Facebook page and later claimed by their owners.
Patty Bullion created the site hours after the tornadoes struck, when several photos and scraps of paper were found in her neighbourhood in the northern Alabama town of Lester. She began posting the pictures on her site. Around 2,000 of those photos and documents eventually were claimed by their owners and returned to them. That gave the researchers a gold mine of raw data on which to build.
"I was very thankful that the page could be a help," Bullion said. "I never dreamed that it would send as many pictures home as it did and then help with research like that. God works in mysterious ways."
Bullion has since taken down the Facebook site. The items pictured there are highly personal, she said, and she didn't want them to be on Facebook forever.
The historic 2011 tornado outbreak in the South, combined with Bullion's social media effort, represented a unique opportunity for the new study, Knox said.
On April 27, 2011, more than 120 tornadoes caused more than 300 deaths across the South.
The items studied from the 2011 outbreak represent "just a small cross section of debris that just carpeted the Southeast," said Knox. "What was amazing was that there was so much debris that went so far."
An earlier study on tornado debris by Snow and his colleagues identified only two objects that had travelled about 215 kilometres. By contrast, the Georgia study identified 44 items that travelled a comparable distance or farther.
The nearly 220 miles covered by the landscape photo sucked up by one of the Alabama tornadoes rivals the path taken by a cancelled check from Stockton, Kansas, which was struck by a tornado in 1991. The check was carried 359 kilometres from Kansas to a farm near Winnetoon, Nebraska, according to records from the World Meteorological Organization.
Knox said the response from his students, who became co-authors of the research paper, was phenomenal.
Knox said he sought to teach them how to conduct the research in a way that was ethical and sensitive to the victims since the tornadoes destroyed lives and homes.
"Hopefully that's a message that the students will take with them," he said. "In this case, we had people whose houses were destroyed and the family members killed and the only thing they may have gotten back was a picture of Grandma and Grandpa that went 150 miles into another state."
- Times Live
In a Warming World, the Storms May Be Fewer But Stronger (Final Part)
References
- Brooks, H. (2013, April 1) Severe thunderstorms and climate change. Atmospheric Research. Volume 123, Pages 129-138.
- Climate Central (2013, Jan. 11) U.S. Sets Record for Days Without a Deadly Tornado. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- Cooney, C. (2012, Jan. 1) Downscaling Climate Models: Sharpening the Focus on Local-Level Changes. Environmental Health Perspectives. Volume 120, Number 1.
- Del Genio, A. (2007, Aug. 17) Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate? Geophysical Research Letters. Volume 34, Number 16.
- Del Genio, A. (2011, April 16) Will a Warmer World Be Stormier? Earthzine. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- Diffenbaugh, N. (2012, Dec. 19) Does Global Warming Influence Tornado Activity? EOS. Volume 89, Number 53.
- Emanuel, K. (2005, Aug. 4) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature. Volume, 436, Pages 686-688.
- Francis, J. (2012, March 17) Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophysical Research Letters. Volume 36, Number 6.
- Kishtawal, C. (2012, May 26) Tropical cyclone intensification trends during satellite era (1986-2010). Geophysical Research Letters. Volume 39, Number 10.
- Knutson, T. (2010, Feb. 21) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience. Volume 3, Pages 157-163.
- Knutson, T. (2008, May 18) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century conditions. Nature Geoscience. Volume 1, Pages 359-364.
- Kunkel, K. (2012) Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of the Knowledge. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
- Kunkel, K. (2010, Dec. 23) Recent increase in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones. Geophysical Research Letters. Volume 37, Number 24.
- Lau, W. and Zhou, Y. (2012, March 17) Observed recent trends in tropical cyclone rainfall over the North Atlantic and North Pacific.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. Volume 117, Number D3.
- Masters, J. (2008, May 21) The future of wind shear. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- Pryor, S. (2008, March 28). How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA? International Journal of Climatology. Volume 29, Number 1.
- Shepherd, M. (2012, Oct. 31) Hurricane Sandy and Climate Change. Project Syndicate. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- Slate (2012, Oct. 29) Hybrid Hell. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- Trapp, R. (2007, Dec. 4) Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. PNAS. Volume 104, Number 50.
- Trapp, R. (2010, May 10) Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution downscaling. Climate Dynamics. Volume 37, Number 3-4.
- Vecchi, G. and Soden, B. (2007, April 18) Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Number 8.
Further Reading
- Bengtsson, L. (2009, May) Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate? Journal of Climate. Volume 22, Pages 2276-2301.
- Champion, A. (2011, Aug 17) Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones. Tellus. Volume 63, Number 5.
- Live Science (2012, Sept. 7) Hurricanes Whip up Faster in a Warming World. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- Masters, J. (2010, March 3) The future of intense winter storms. Weather Underground. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- NOAA (n.d.) Severe Weather 101:Tornado Basics. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- NOAA (n.d.) Large-scale Climate Projections and Hurricanes. Accessed March 1, 2013.
- Ulbrich, U. (2009, Jan. 17) Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: A review. Theoretical Applied Climatology. Volume 98, Number 1-2.
- University of Rhode Island (n.d.) Hurricane Science. Accessed Feb. 7, 2013.
- NASA
Sunday, 17 March 2013
In a Warming World, the Storms May Be Fewer But Stronger (Part 5)
Can Models Provide an Answer?
Due to gaps and limitations in historical records of storms, some scientists have turned to general circulation models (GCMs) for answers. GCMs are computer models that divide the globe up into three-dimensional grids, with the side of each box typically representing about 150 to 200 kilometers (90 to 125 miles) of the Earth. The conditions within each box are defined by equations that depict features of the oceans and atmosphere, such as temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind. The models also include factors that can affect those features, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases, the reflectivity of Earth’s surface, or the distribution of clouds or aerosols.New, high-resolution computer models are increasingly capable of resolving small features in the atmosphere. The GEOS-5 model, running at a resolution of 3.5 kilometers (2.2 miles) per grid cell, simulated the state of the atmosphere on January 2, 2009. (NASA image by Greg Shirah, GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio.)
Models are useful because they make it possible to parse out how
each different factor might influence climate in a given location. By
adding, removing, and adjusting the variables, scientists can develop a
deeper understanding of how the many pieces of the climate puzzle fit
together.
“Models allow us to test hypotheses and improve our understanding in ways that no other type of experiment can,” says Del Genio. “They are criticized for predicting things ‘wrong’ and for the lack of agreement between them. But a model simulation that predicts something incorrectly can be just as useful for revealing underlying processes as a model run that gets the ‘right’ answer.”
Climate models are quite good at working out features of the atmosphere on a broad scale, and they do a reasonably good job of simulating large extra-tropical cyclones, which can stretch hundreds of kilometers. But they struggle to simulate hurricanes or thunderstorms, and they cannot produce key details (such as the heaviest bands of wind and rain) in extra-tropical storms. Hurricanes are generally about 150 kilometers (90 miles) across; an individual thunderstorm is usually less than 10 kilometers (6 miles). Both are smaller than the typical grid boxes in a climate model.
“Models allow us to test hypotheses and improve our understanding in ways that no other type of experiment can,” says Del Genio. “They are criticized for predicting things ‘wrong’ and for the lack of agreement between them. But a model simulation that predicts something incorrectly can be just as useful for revealing underlying processes as a model run that gets the ‘right’ answer.”
Climate models are quite good at working out features of the atmosphere on a broad scale, and they do a reasonably good job of simulating large extra-tropical cyclones, which can stretch hundreds of kilometers. But they struggle to simulate hurricanes or thunderstorms, and they cannot produce key details (such as the heaviest bands of wind and rain) in extra-tropical storms. Hurricanes are generally about 150 kilometers (90 miles) across; an individual thunderstorm is usually less than 10 kilometers (6 miles). Both are smaller than the typical grid boxes in a climate model.
Thunderstorms are smaller than the resolution of a typical global
climate model. However, a new generation of regional models that include
high-resolution, real-world data now provide scientists with a detailed
look at thunderstorms and other small-scale features of the atmosphere.
(Astronaut photograph ISS022-E-006510.)
To address this problem, climate modelers have started to develop a
new generation of models that reduce the size of the boxes in key
regions by “downscaling.”
One way they do this is by adding very detailed information about
something that’s well known, like topography, into a low-resolution
climate model. They also add ever-more detailed information from
real-world satellites.
“Downscaling to simulate storms is a bit like knowing that you have a low-resolution image of a face that’s so blurry you can hardly tell what it is,” explained Gavin Schmidt, a climate modeler at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies. “You take clues from a low-resolution image and then map them with other information about things like eye color, skin colors, and nose shapes to construct a more reasonable image of what the face really looks like.”
Trapp’s research group at Purdue, for example, used downscaling to incorporate data from a coarse climate model into a finer-resolution weather forecasting model. This made it possible to resolve some individual thunderstorms in the central United States and even some of the smaller elements of storms. Overall, the model captured daily rainfall patterns with surprising accuracy over a ten-year period.
“No model can predict the future perfectly,” says Del Genio. “But there’s no question that models are helping us with the underlying science.”
In some cases, the work has just begun. While climatologists have extensively studied tropical storms, they’ve hardly studied some of the more exotic types of storms. Sandy, for example, began in the Caribbean as a typical tropical storm but then morphed into a “hybrid” with extra-tropical characteristics. While tropical cyclones draw their energy from warm ocean waters, extra-tropical cyclones are fueled by sharp temperature differences between fronts in the atmosphere. Sandy was able to tap energy from both sources, which is part of the reason it was so destructive.
“Downscaling to simulate storms is a bit like knowing that you have a low-resolution image of a face that’s so blurry you can hardly tell what it is,” explained Gavin Schmidt, a climate modeler at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies. “You take clues from a low-resolution image and then map them with other information about things like eye color, skin colors, and nose shapes to construct a more reasonable image of what the face really looks like.”
Trapp’s research group at Purdue, for example, used downscaling to incorporate data from a coarse climate model into a finer-resolution weather forecasting model. This made it possible to resolve some individual thunderstorms in the central United States and even some of the smaller elements of storms. Overall, the model captured daily rainfall patterns with surprising accuracy over a ten-year period.
“No model can predict the future perfectly,” says Del Genio. “But there’s no question that models are helping us with the underlying science.”
In some cases, the work has just begun. While climatologists have extensively studied tropical storms, they’ve hardly studied some of the more exotic types of storms. Sandy, for example, began in the Caribbean as a typical tropical storm but then morphed into a “hybrid” with extra-tropical characteristics. While tropical cyclones draw their energy from warm ocean waters, extra-tropical cyclones are fueled by sharp temperature differences between fronts in the atmosphere. Sandy was able to tap energy from both sources, which is part of the reason it was so destructive.
“No model can predict the future perfectly,” says Del Genio. “But
there’s no question that models are helping us with the underlying
science.” (Photograph courtesy Anthony Del Genio, NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies.)
Shepherd does think warming had an influence on Sandy, but he
advises against rushing to judgment. “We do not know whether superstorms
like Sandy are harbingers of a ‘new normal’, he says. “It’s a bit like
steroids usage and home run statistics for baseball. Some influence was
surely there, but we have more work to do before we can say precisely
what percentage of home runs were helped by steroids.”
And then, of course, the inherent variability of the oceans and atmosphere means storm trends don’t follow straightforward patterns. After the record-shattering tornado outbreaks of 2011, for instance, the year 2012 was unusually quiet.
“There was a strong impulse to over-interpret and attribute tornadoes to climate change in 2011,” says Del Genio. “2012 was a good reminder that we can’t do that. We have to be patient if we really want to understand the relationship between storms and climate. The attribution is about trends and understanding underlying processes. It is not about flagging individual events with some sort of scarlet letter.”
- NASA
Final part to be published on the 18 March 2013.
And then, of course, the inherent variability of the oceans and atmosphere means storm trends don’t follow straightforward patterns. After the record-shattering tornado outbreaks of 2011, for instance, the year 2012 was unusually quiet.
“There was a strong impulse to over-interpret and attribute tornadoes to climate change in 2011,” says Del Genio. “2012 was a good reminder that we can’t do that. We have to be patient if we really want to understand the relationship between storms and climate. The attribution is about trends and understanding underlying processes. It is not about flagging individual events with some sort of scarlet letter.”
- NASA
Final part to be published on the 18 March 2013.
Friday, 15 March 2013
In a Warming World, the Storms May Be Fewer But Stronger ( Part
Competing Forces Muddle the Picture
Although more rain and snow are falling from storms, it’s more difficult to say how global warming will affect the formation of those storms in the first place. “This would be a much easier nut to crack if the effects of warming all pointed to more frequent, stronger storms,” says Harold Brooks, a meteorologist at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. “Unfortunately, they don’t.”Though thunderstorms are familiar and seemingly non-threatening, severe thunderstorms—with sustained winds above 93 kilometers (58 miles) per hour or with unusually large hail—can lead to supercells, derechos, and tornadoes. Several key ingredients are required for severe thunderstorms, starting with the presence of warm, moist air near the surface and a store of potential energy once that air begins to rise. Meteorologists call this combination “convective available potential energy,” or CAPE. The higher the CAPE, the more potential an air mass has to create the towering cumulus clouds that create storms.
Lightning only occurs in areas with strong convection. This map of lightning strike frequency from May 1995 through 2011 shows where severe weather occurs around the world. Scientists are using computer models to predict if global warming will cause an increase in the number and strength of thunderstorms. (NASA image by Robert Simmon, using data from the MSFC Global Hydrology Resource Center.)
“CAPE can provide storms with the raw fuel to produce rain and
hail,” says Brooks, “and vertical wind shear can pull and twist weak
storms into strong, windy ones.”
Climate change should, theoretically, increase potential storm energy by warming the surface and putting more moisture in the air through evaporation, Brooks explained. But on the other hand, disproportionate warming in the Arctic should lead to less wind shear in the mid-latitude areas prone to severe thunderstorms, making the storms less likely.
In recent years, Del Genio conducted simulations to assess global warming’s impact on thunderstorms in the United States. Working with a climate model maintained by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, he found that the number of severe storms would not change much, but the strongest storms would have even stronger and more destructive winds.
Another study, led by Robert Trapp of Purdue University, found that a doubling of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would significantly increase the number of days that severe thunderstorms could occur in the southern and eastern United States. Cities such as Atlanta and New York could see a doubling of the number of days that severe thunderstorms could occur, the models suggested. “The increase in CAPE more than compensated for the decrease in wind shear,” Trapp says.
Climate change should, theoretically, increase potential storm energy by warming the surface and putting more moisture in the air through evaporation, Brooks explained. But on the other hand, disproportionate warming in the Arctic should lead to less wind shear in the mid-latitude areas prone to severe thunderstorms, making the storms less likely.
In recent years, Del Genio conducted simulations to assess global warming’s impact on thunderstorms in the United States. Working with a climate model maintained by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, he found that the number of severe storms would not change much, but the strongest storms would have even stronger and more destructive winds.
Another study, led by Robert Trapp of Purdue University, found that a doubling of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would significantly increase the number of days that severe thunderstorms could occur in the southern and eastern United States. Cities such as Atlanta and New York could see a doubling of the number of days that severe thunderstorms could occur, the models suggested. “The increase in CAPE more than compensated for the decrease in wind shear,” Trapp says.
Detailed climate models of the United States are helping scientists determine the effect of future climate change on storms. These maps show the results of one model comparing the summer climate in 2072–2099 with the climate in 1962–1989. Convective available potential energy is predicted to rise enough to overwhelm a slight decrease in vertical wind shear, leading to an increase in severe thunderstorms, especially in Missouri and coastal North and South Carolina. (Images adapted from Trapp et al., 2007.)
However, both scientists caution that there’s uncertainty in their
findings because of the meager scientific attention thunderstorms have
received. Unlike tropical cyclones, which climate researchers have
studied intensely since Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, only a handful of researchers have focused on the impact of global warming on severe thunderstorms.
Then there are problems unique to tornadoes. Beyond knowing that they require a certain type of wind shear, meteorologists just don’t know much about why some thunderstorms generate tornadoes and others don’t. (Only about 1 percent of thunderstorms generate tornadoes.) “You can’t just take the results of the modeling for severe thunderstorms and assume they apply to tornadoes,” says Del Genio.
Similar problems confound research about extra-tropical and tropical cyclones. Conventional wisdom holds that extra-tropical cyclones will be somewhat less likely in a warmer world because the differences in temperatures between the tropics and the Arctic—one of the key elements fueling extra-tropical storms—should decline.
But again, there are competing forces. At higher altitudes in the upper troposphere—above 5 kilometers (3 miles)—the air is warming more quickly at the equator than at the poles. Since upper troposphere temperatures and winds are key to the formation of extra-tropical cyclones, changes at that level could counteract changes lower in the atmosphere.
- NASA
Then there are problems unique to tornadoes. Beyond knowing that they require a certain type of wind shear, meteorologists just don’t know much about why some thunderstorms generate tornadoes and others don’t. (Only about 1 percent of thunderstorms generate tornadoes.) “You can’t just take the results of the modeling for severe thunderstorms and assume they apply to tornadoes,” says Del Genio.
Similar problems confound research about extra-tropical and tropical cyclones. Conventional wisdom holds that extra-tropical cyclones will be somewhat less likely in a warmer world because the differences in temperatures between the tropics and the Arctic—one of the key elements fueling extra-tropical storms—should decline.
But again, there are competing forces. At higher altitudes in the upper troposphere—above 5 kilometers (3 miles)—the air is warming more quickly at the equator than at the poles. Since upper troposphere temperatures and winds are key to the formation of extra-tropical cyclones, changes at that level could counteract changes lower in the atmosphere.
- NASA
Monday, 11 March 2013
In a Warming World, the Storms May Be Fewer But Stronger (Part 3)
Effects of the Temperature See-Saw
If understanding the impact of global warming on storms were simply a matter of tallying up extra moisture, the answer would be pretty straightforward. However, reality is more complicated. Putting extra water vapor into the atmosphere is just one of the ways global warming is changing the planet. Another important factor is how the heat in the atmosphere is distributed.Since the mid Twentieth Century, average global temperatures have warmed about 0.6°C (1.1°F), but the warming has not occurred equally everywhere. Temperatures have increased about twice as fast in the Arctic as in the mid-latitudes. The loss of sea ice is a key reason why. Bright and reflective ice is giving way to darker, open ocean—amplifying the warming trend by absorbing more heat from the Sun. On the other hand, the abundance of convection and thunderstorms in the tropics contributes to a slower rate of warming by transporting heat away from the surface.
Climatologists think the differing rates of warming from the equator to the poles could have a significant impact on some types of storms. Extra-tropical cyclones, for example, harvest energy from the atmosphere when masses of warm and cold air interact along the polar front—the boundary between cooler polar air and warmer subtropical air. As the difference between the temperature at the poles and the tropics decreases, there could be less energy for these storms to absorb, a change that could weaken them or make them less frequent.
Temperatures are warming more near the poles than near the equator. This plot shows the change in temperature versus latitude from 1880 to 2012. The reduced temperature contrast between high latitudes and the tropics likely weakens extra tropical cyclones. (NASA image by Robert Simmon, with GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) data.)
“Sorting out opposing factors is what makes this such a challenging problem,” Del Genio says. “And keep in mind that this is a simplification. These aren’t the only two factors involved.”
Wind shear—a measure of how the speed and direction of winds differ at different levels of the atmosphere—complicates the picture because it can affect storms in a variety of ways. Tropical cyclones require weak wind shear; in other words, they need minimal differences in wind speeds at adjacent levels of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear tears tropical cyclones apart, preventing heat and moisture from organizing into a storm core.
Research suggests that Atlantic wind shear could increase by 1 to 2 miles (1.6 to 3.2 kilometers) per hour for each degree that global temperatures increase. It’s this potential increase that explains why many climate simulators conclude that the number of tropical cyclones will stay the same or decrease even as the strongest storms get stronger. An article published in 2010 by a group of the world’s leading storm experts concluded that the average intensity of tropical cyclones will likely increase by 2 to 11 percent by 2100, but the overall frequency of storms will decrease between 6 and 34 percent.
Wind shear—a measure of how the speed and direction of winds differ at different levels of the atmosphere—complicates the picture because it can affect storms in a variety of ways. Tropical cyclones require weak wind shear; in other words, they need minimal differences in wind speeds at adjacent levels of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear tears tropical cyclones apart, preventing heat and moisture from organizing into a storm core.
Research suggests that Atlantic wind shear could increase by 1 to 2 miles (1.6 to 3.2 kilometers) per hour for each degree that global temperatures increase. It’s this potential increase that explains why many climate simulators conclude that the number of tropical cyclones will stay the same or decrease even as the strongest storms get stronger. An article published in 2010 by a group of the world’s leading storm experts concluded that the average intensity of tropical cyclones will likely increase by 2 to 11 percent by 2100, but the overall frequency of storms will decrease between 6 and 34 percent.
Another complicating factor is that the same changes in
equator-to-pole temperatures that could influence storm formation could
also affect the winds that steer them. For instance, jet
streams—meandering streams of fast-moving air that play a key role in
steering storms—could speed up or slow down. A sluggish jet stream would
mean slower-moving storms that could dump heavier loads of rain and
snow, especially in coastal areas.
Preliminary research by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University suggests that the jet stream’s west-to-east winds have slowed and grown wavier since 1979 because of the loss of Arctic sea ice. Francis has argued that the changes may have contributed to extreme weather events in recent years by creating large dips or kinks in the jet stream—what meteorologists call “blocking” patterns.
Blocking patterns are areas of persistently high pressure that often accompany extreme weather. It was a blocking high, for example, that led to long-lived downpours and devastating flooding in Pakistan in 2010. And it was a similar persistent blocking pattern that caused record melting in Greenland in the summer of 2012 and helped push Superstorm Sandy inland rather than out to sea
- NASA
Part 4 to be published on the 12 March 2013.
Preliminary research by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University suggests that the jet stream’s west-to-east winds have slowed and grown wavier since 1979 because of the loss of Arctic sea ice. Francis has argued that the changes may have contributed to extreme weather events in recent years by creating large dips or kinks in the jet stream—what meteorologists call “blocking” patterns.
Blocking patterns are areas of persistently high pressure that often accompany extreme weather. It was a blocking high, for example, that led to long-lived downpours and devastating flooding in Pakistan in 2010. And it was a similar persistent blocking pattern that caused record melting in Greenland in the summer of 2012 and helped push Superstorm Sandy inland rather than out to sea
- NASA
Part 4 to be published on the 12 March 2013.
Friday, 8 March 2013
In a Warming World, Storms May Be Fewer but Stronger (Part 2)
Storms are Getting Stronger
What exactly does it mean for storms to get “stronger”? Does it mean faster winds? A larger wind field? Lower pressure at the center? More rain and snowfall? Higher storm surges?
“You have to remember that storms aren’t one-dimensional,” says Del Genio. “There are many types of storms, and sorting out how aspects of each type respond to warming is where the science really gets interesting.”
As Sandy was moving up the U.S. East Coast, unusually warm ocean temperatures allowed the storm to stay strong after it left tropical waters. (Map by Robert Simmon, using data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.)
Rising sea levels exacerbated Sandy’s storm surge, for example, a
direct link between global warming and storm damage. And abnormally high
sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic probably intensified the
storm. But pinning all of Sandy’s fury—its hybrid nature, the scale of
its winds, its unusual track—on global warming is premature, says
Shepherd, the current president of the American Meteorological Society.
Weather forecasters use terms like snowstorms, derechos, hailstorms, rainstorms, blizzards, low-pressure systems, lightning storms, hurricanes, typhoons, nor‘easters, and twisters. Research meteorologists and climatologists have a simpler way of dividing up the world’s storms: thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, and extra-tropical cyclones. All are atmospheric disturbances that redistribute heat and produce some combination of clouds, precipitation, and wind.
Tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and thunderstorms are the
three fundamental types of storms studied by the climate change
community. (Image ©2013 EUMETSAT.)Weather forecasters use terms like snowstorms, derechos, hailstorms, rainstorms, blizzards, low-pressure systems, lightning storms, hurricanes, typhoons, nor‘easters, and twisters. Research meteorologists and climatologists have a simpler way of dividing up the world’s storms: thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, and extra-tropical cyclones. All are atmospheric disturbances that redistribute heat and produce some combination of clouds, precipitation, and wind.
Thunderstorms are the smallest type, and they are often part of the
larger storm systems (tropical and extra-tropical cyclones). All storms
require moisture, energy, and certain wind conditions to develop, but
the combination of ingredients varies depending on the type of storm and
local meteorological conditions.
For example, thunderstorms form when a trigger—a cold front, converging near-surface winds, or rugged topography—destabilizes a mass of warm, humid air and causes it to rise. The air expands and cools as it ascends, increasing the humidity until the water vapor condenses into liquid droplets or ice crystals in precipitation-making clouds. The process of converting water vapor into liquid water or ice releases latent heat into the atmosphere. (If this doesn’t make sense, remember that the reverse—turning liquid water into water vapor by boiling it—requires heat).
Storms feed off of latent heat, which is why scientists think global warming is strengthening storms. Extra heat in the atmosphere or ocean nourishes storms; the more heat energy that goes in, the more vigorously a weather system can churn.
Thunderstorms derive their energy from the heat released by the
condensation of water vapor. This “latent heat” energy drives
thunderstorm clouds high into the atmosphere. Thunderstorms dissipate
when the cold downdraft created by falling rain drops stifles rising
warm air. (Image adapted from NOAA National Weather Service Life Cycle of a Thunderstorm.)For example, thunderstorms form when a trigger—a cold front, converging near-surface winds, or rugged topography—destabilizes a mass of warm, humid air and causes it to rise. The air expands and cools as it ascends, increasing the humidity until the water vapor condenses into liquid droplets or ice crystals in precipitation-making clouds. The process of converting water vapor into liquid water or ice releases latent heat into the atmosphere. (If this doesn’t make sense, remember that the reverse—turning liquid water into water vapor by boiling it—requires heat).
Storms feed off of latent heat, which is why scientists think global warming is strengthening storms. Extra heat in the atmosphere or ocean nourishes storms; the more heat energy that goes in, the more vigorously a weather system can churn.
Already, there is evidence that the winds of some storms may be
changing. A study based on more than two decades of satellite altimeter
data (measuring sea surface height) showed that hurricanes intensify
significantly faster now than they did 25 years ago. Specifically,
researchers found that storms attain Category 3 wind speeds nearly nine
hours faster than they did in the 1980s. Another satellite-based study
found that global wind speeds had increased by an average of 5 percent
over the past two decades.
There is also evidence that extra water vapor in the atmosphere is making storms wetter. During the past 25 years, satellites have measured a 4 percent rise in water vapor in the air column. In ground-based records, about 76 percent of weather stations in the United States have seen increases in extreme precipitation since 1948. One analysis found that extreme downpours are happening 30 percent more often. Another study found that the largest storms now produce 10 percent more precipitation.
Increases in global temperature have raised atmospheric humidity. (Graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center.)There is also evidence that extra water vapor in the atmosphere is making storms wetter. During the past 25 years, satellites have measured a 4 percent rise in water vapor in the air column. In ground-based records, about 76 percent of weather stations in the United States have seen increases in extreme precipitation since 1948. One analysis found that extreme downpours are happening 30 percent more often. Another study found that the largest storms now produce 10 percent more precipitation.
William Lau, a scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center,
concluded in a 2012 paper that rainfall totals from tropical cyclones in
the North Atlantic have risen at a rate of 24 percent per decade since
1988. The increase in precipitation doesn’t just apply to rain. NOAA
scientists have examined 120 years of data and found that there were
twice as many extreme regional snowstorms between 1961 and 2010 as there
were from 1900 to 1960.
But measuring a storm’s maximum size, heaviest rains, or top winds does not capture the full scope of its power. Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, developed a method to measure the total energy expended by tropical cyclones over their lifetimes. In 2005, he showed that Atlantic hurricanes are about 60 percent more powerful than they were in the 1970s. Storms lasted longer and their top wind speeds had increased by 25 percent. (Subsequent research has shown that the intensification may be related to differences between the temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.)
- NASA
But measuring a storm’s maximum size, heaviest rains, or top winds does not capture the full scope of its power. Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, developed a method to measure the total energy expended by tropical cyclones over their lifetimes. In 2005, he showed that Atlantic hurricanes are about 60 percent more powerful than they were in the 1970s. Storms lasted longer and their top wind speeds had increased by 25 percent. (Subsequent research has shown that the intensification may be related to differences between the temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.)
- NASA
Note: Part 3 to be published 9 March 2013
Tuesday, 5 March 2013
Photos: Tornado observed over Kriel, Mpumalanga, Saturday 02 March
(Click on images for larger view.)
Paul Andrews writes: Please see attached photos of what came to town on Saturday morning just before my daughter's hockey game, at Kriel, Mpumalanga.
It was outside of town and far off, probably about 10km and it never touched down.
What's really strange about it is that it was not a day of severe weather systems.
The morning began cool and overcast with patches of light rain and drizzle, almost like a cold front.
There was no major build-up of severe heat and then the sudden icy cold of hail-laden storm clouds, together with violent gusting winds.
Instead it was calm, only slightly breezy and moderate. This was not in any way a day filled with perfect tornado-forming weather.
The funnel lasted about 10 minutes and then was gone again.
SAWDOS: Paul thanks so much for the funnel images. This is a great observation taken into account that the conditions were not conducive for the formation of tornadoes. However one never knows when mother nature will come up with a surprise.
Tuesday, 12 February 2013
Heavy rain: Child drowns in Midlands
The body of a six-year-old child, who drowned after being swept away by a swollen river in the KZN Midlands following heavy rains, has been recovered.
Little Khetelo Madlala is believed to have been walking home from school yesterday afternoon in the Impendle area when he was swept away by the Nzinga river, which had burst its banks.
Meanwhile, in the Msinga area - near Greytown - four other people are also believed to have lost their lives due to the downpour.
Disaster management teams are assessing the damage in the area.
The Umgungundlovu district municipality's Mdu Nxumalo says teams are also assisting 11 families who've been affected by heavy rains in Impendle.
Nxumalo says two homes in the area were also struck by lightning last night.
"There were no injuries, no fatalities [in the lightning strike]," Nxumalo said. "There are teams on site doing a damage assessment."
- East Coast Radio News
Little Khetelo Madlala is believed to have been walking home from school yesterday afternoon in the Impendle area when he was swept away by the Nzinga river, which had burst its banks.
Meanwhile, in the Msinga area - near Greytown - four other people are also believed to have lost their lives due to the downpour.
Disaster management teams are assessing the damage in the area.
The Umgungundlovu district municipality's Mdu Nxumalo says teams are also assisting 11 families who've been affected by heavy rains in Impendle.
Nxumalo says two homes in the area were also struck by lightning last night.
"There were no injuries, no fatalities [in the lightning strike]," Nxumalo said. "There are teams on site doing a damage assessment."
- East Coast Radio News
Freak storm wreaks havoc in the Eastern Cape (10 February 2012)
WHERE’S MY ROOF: Mlungisi Dama of Dowu village inside his spaza shop where a roof was also blown off by strong winds. STEPHANIE LLOYD
A SERIES of 20 storm cells merged to form five large storms which generated destructive gusts of wind and heavy rain on Sunday evening.
Residents throughout a large area of the Eastern Cape were shocked at the severity of the gust fronts and accompanying deluges.
This story of the storms, which smashed into an area taking in both metros, and reaching inland as far as Cradock and Butterworth, was told by two weather and two disaster management experts.
Eastern Cape SA Weather Service spokesman Garth Sampson said although these summer storms were “normal” and not part of climate change, they were characterised by destructive gust fronts.
He explained that parcels of air formed up in the very top of the thunderheads or anvils, and then “dived” from heights of 1.4km and burst out the front of the storm.
Gust front downdrafts have tossed two park homes into the air, and were responsible for most of the damage.
A gust front travelling at up to 180km/h will gouge the earth in a straight, narrow line between 100m to a kilometre wide, and move at ground level for a short distance, probably only lasting a minute.
Such fronts are capable of opening up a home “like a can of sardines,” said Sampson.
Kaysers Beach mom Margaret Green said their evening of DStv viewing turned to DVD watching as the power went out.
“Suddenly there was a huge crash,” she said, as two heavy asbestos roof sheets disappeared into the sky and rain sluiced through the 1.5m x 3m-hole, drenching carpets in three bedrooms and causing all the top floor ceiling boards to sag.
HOMELESS: Mzwandile Tywaleni of Dowu village in Chalumna showing Daily Dispatch reporters his house that was destroyed by the strong winds and rain on Sunday. Picture: STEPHANIE LLOYD
Sampson said February was perfect for storms like these, of which the metros received about three a month during a season stretching between September and March.
“You have the heat, you have the easterly flow [ of moist sea air] . You have energy and petrol. What more do you need?”
In the Buffalo City Metro, residents keyed up to watch the Afcon cup final on telly instead found themselves shunting furniture around, holding towels to the ceiling or soaking up water with mops.
Shortly before the kick-off, lightning crashed hitting trees and dropping branches, and a deluge of 34.2mm of rain caused gutters to collapse and sent water through roofs.
However, Buffalo City Metro disaster manager Owen Becker said the city’s services were able to cope with minor flooding, outages and other damage.
The Daily Dispatch learned from a local weather expert that the East London temperature plunged from 30 degrees to 19 degrees after the storm broke, while the humidity level went from 62.6% to 92%.
DESTROYED: Welekazi Makeleni seen outside her house in Sandile village after a roof was ripped off by strong winds on Sunday night Pictures: STEPHANIE LLOYD
The wind direction swung from a 35km northerly wind to a 55km south-westerly, with gusts of up to 200km observed near Greenfields.
Visibility for aircraft was reduced to a minimal 1110m as the cloud cover switched from a mid- level altocumulus to ground-level stratocumulus.
Eastern Cape disaster management spokesman John Fobian said both metros experienced flash flooding, and there were reports of power outages in Alice, settlements in the Great Fish river basin, Cradock and along the Sunshine Coast.
- Daily Dispatch
SAWDOS: Well done Garth Sampson and the Daily Dispatch!! A great analysis by Garth of the severe storms that struck the Eastern Cape this past weekend. Your years of experience is clearly noticeable. Thanks Daily Dispatch. This is the type of educational information that the public wants to read and know. Keep up the good work!!
Swaar reën in die noorde van KwaZulu-Natal
OPVOLG: 12H00 - Ses mense is as vermis aangemeld en een is ernstig beseer nadat 'n swaar storm gisteraand huise en infrastruktuur in die uMzinyathi Munisipaliteit in die noorde van KwaZulu-Natal vernietig het. Paaie en brûe is van die infrastruktuur wat erg beskadig is. Die burgemeester van die Umzinyathi distrik, James Mthethwa sê vier huise het weggespoel. Hy het gevra vir bystand van die provinsiale regering.
09H00 - Swaar reën in die uMzinyathi Munisipaliteit in die noorde van KwaZulu-Natal het huise en infrastruktuur vernietig. Volgens berigte het 'n brug ook ineengestort. Die burgemeester van uMzinyathi, James Mthethwa sê hulle sal enige hulp van die provinsiale regering in geraakte gebiede soos Umsinga en Dundee, verwelkom. Daar is 'n aantal mense as vermis aangemeld.
- RSG Nuus
09H00 - Swaar reën in die uMzinyathi Munisipaliteit in die noorde van KwaZulu-Natal het huise en infrastruktuur vernietig. Volgens berigte het 'n brug ook ineengestort. Die burgemeester van uMzinyathi, James Mthethwa sê hulle sal enige hulp van die provinsiale regering in geraakte gebiede soos Umsinga en Dundee, verwelkom. Daar is 'n aantal mense as vermis aangemeld.
- RSG Nuus
Sterkspruit hailstorm leaves 10 families homeless (3 February 2013)
A HAILSTORM left about 10 families homeless in Silindini village in Sterkspruit on Sunday, 3 February 2013.
Some villagers came back home from church to find the roofs of their homes ripped off by the strong winds. No injuries were reported.
Resident Madlamini Ndlengezwe said: “My furniture has also been damaged. I don’t know what to do. My bedroom suite is damaged and my house is destroyed. This is a black Sunday!”
The villagers said the hailstorm moved through the village fast. It hit at 2.30pm and in 20 minutes it had trail of destruction.
Christopher Zingithwa said he was lucky to have escaped unscathed after the roof of his two-room flat was blown away. He was in bed at the time and a brick fell onto it, missing him.
“I am unemployed and do not have money to fix it. I am left with a roofless left a house,” he said.
Senqu Municipality Ward 18 councillor Benjamin Ngongodo confirmed at least 10 homes were destroyed.
Mayor Nozibele Mtyhali said as soon as they received a full report on the matter they would forward it to the Joe Gqabi District Municipality for assistance.
- Daily Dispatch
Some villagers came back home from church to find the roofs of their homes ripped off by the strong winds. No injuries were reported.
Resident Madlamini Ndlengezwe said: “My furniture has also been damaged. I don’t know what to do. My bedroom suite is damaged and my house is destroyed. This is a black Sunday!”
The villagers said the hailstorm moved through the village fast. It hit at 2.30pm and in 20 minutes it had trail of destruction.
Christopher Zingithwa said he was lucky to have escaped unscathed after the roof of his two-room flat was blown away. He was in bed at the time and a brick fell onto it, missing him.
“I am unemployed and do not have money to fix it. I am left with a roofless left a house,” he said.
Senqu Municipality Ward 18 councillor Benjamin Ngongodo confirmed at least 10 homes were destroyed.
Mayor Nozibele Mtyhali said as soon as they received a full report on the matter they would forward it to the Joe Gqabi District Municipality for assistance.
- Daily Dispatch
180km/h wind with fierce rain torments Eastern Cape (10 February 2013)
COLLAPSED: Nomatshawe Ndleleni of Sandile Village in Chalumna standing in front of her uncle’s tavern yesterday. A strong wind accompanied by rain ripped through the house. Luckily no one was injured. Picture: STEPHANIE LLOYD
DRIVING winds and pouring rain caused widespread damage across parts of the Eastern Cape on Sunday night as a fierce storm lashed homes causing damage amounting to hundreds of thousands of rands.
Two areas that were hit badly included Chalumna and Christmas Rock, and some areas in Peddie recorded storm gusts of up to 180km/h.
Close to a hundred houses in the Chalumna area were badly damaged and one man was seriously injured after a park home collapsed on top of him as he was trying to escape.
The storm, which lasted less than an hour, left residents shocked. Patrons at a tavern belonging to businessman Phindile Ndleleni of Sandile village had a narrow escape when an almost 40m tall tree crashed down on it.
“This storm was fast and left damage that I estimate to be in region of R200000 in my place,” said Ndleleni.
Ndleleni’s niece, Nomatshawe Ndleleni, was inside at the time. She said she had heard a big bang before the ceiling collapsed on her.
“It was scary. I was in the storeroom and there were people drinking in the main hall. Luckily for us no one was injured. How we escaped I don’t know. The ceiling came crashing down.”
In New Rest village, an employee of the provincial department of public works was seriously injured and his friend, Loyiso Mahanjana had minor injuries when their park homes were blown away by the fierce winds.
Mahanjana was asleep. He said he saw his house “up in the air” before he lost consciousness.
“I was gone. After that I don’t know how the house landed on the ground. It was a freak storm,” he said.
Mahanjana and his friend were rescued by the owner of a security company and rushed to Frere Hospital. “If it was not for him, my friend would have died here,” he said.
Houses were damaged in Dowu, Zikhova and Ngqinisa villages.
At Christmas Rock, Roland Harris said this was the fiercest storm they’d had in the area.
- Daily Dispatch
Large tornado hits Hattiesburg, Mississippi
A strong cold front triggering blizzard conditions across northern Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota is also triggering severe weather across the deep south today (Sunday, February 10, 2013). The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk for severe weather across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama for a threat to see a few strong tornadoes, large hail, and strong winds. During the evening hours, supercells developed across southern Mississippi and produced very distinct signatures on radar that would indicate strong rotation and possible tornadoes. One confirmed tornado struck the city of Hattiesburg, Mississippi around 5 p.m CST (22:00 UTC). There have been numerous reports of severe damage to buildings, structures, and what appears to be a direct hit through the University of Southern Mississippi. In this post, we have included some images and videos that were posted via social media. It is still too early to know if any injuries or deaths occurred with this particular storm. Once we get more details, we will let you know.
User name “Ryan iz Legend” posted this image of the tornado that hit Hattiesburg, Mississippi via instagram.
Information is still coming out at the moment, but it looks like the city of Hattiesburg was struck the hardest. According to reports via twitter, Southern Mississippi reports tornado damage at Jazz Station, Mannoni Performing Arts Center, Ogletree Alumni House and Elam Arms.
Here is some amazing footage by John Sibley in Hattiesburg, Mississippi:
The USM Alumni house was one of the many buildings hit by the strong tornado in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Image Credit: WDAM-TV
Damage in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Image Credit: Brent Jones (@Brentjones4)
Here is a radar image shortly after the tornado hit Hattiesburg, Mississippi. It shows both reflectivity (top) and velocity (bottom) images that help indicate rotation and a possible tornado in the storm.
Bottom line: A large tornado struck Hattiesburg, Mississippi around 5 p.m. CST on Sunday, February 10, 2013. Based on the storm reports, it appears as if injuries have occurred with this particular tornado, although nothing has been confirmed as of now. Based on radar images, video, pictures, and damage reports, this tornado will likely be ranked as an EF-2 or EF-3 tornado. We will know more about the extent of the damage tomorrow when we have daylight and the National Weather Service can begin a survey. Prayers go out to all of the victims involved in not only this particular storm, but all across the region experiencing severe weather this evening.
- EarthSky
Monday, 11 February 2013
Severe thunderstorm causes flash flooding and power outages in Port Elizabeth (10 February 2013)
A severe thunderstorm over Port Elizabeth caused damage and drama yesterday as heavy rainfall, accompanied by hail and lightning, led to flash flooding and power outages in parts of the city.
A stream of posts on social network site Facebook also reported roads, homes and gardens being flooded in mere minutes.
The PE Branch of the SA weather service reports that 25 millimetres of rain fell at the airport during yesterday's storm.
Third Avenue Dip in Newton Park measured 43 millimetres of rain.
It was closed to traffic earlier today but has since been reopened.
Coega measured 37 millimetres and Uitenhage 13.
In other parts of the Eastern Cape, Joubertina measured 28 millimetres, East London 34, Storms River 23, Barkley East 21 and Aliwal North 28.
- Herald/AlgoaFM
Saturday, 9 February 2013
UPDATE: Upper air trough and cut-off low Western Cape: 9 -10 February 2013
We currently have a large cloud bank over parts of the Western and Northern Cape provinces this morning. As indicated before an upper air trough and cut-off is likely to develop further. The upper air trough might bring some thundershowers and cooler temperatures over parts of the Western Cape while the cut-off low (currently situated off shore) is likely to bring rain along the coastal belt while moving eastwards.
Rain and cooler conditions have been reported in Cape Town by Les Gutsche and Claire Horner. Mario Davy of Gansbaai report overcast conditions this morning, strong SE wind with thunder but no rain yet. The SAWS lighting chart shows widespread lighting strikes to the north and west of Cape Town.
General Overview: The SAWS issued severe thunderstorm warnings for the Western Cape, Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and Free State while extremely uncomfortable, hot and humid conditions are expected over northeastern part of Kwazulu Natal.
We all know that it is difficult to exactly predict where precipitation is expected as a result of the cut-off low. The SAWDOS would like to warn all communities to remain on full alert. SAWDOS will once again bring you the latest updates as the system progresses. It is difficult to say for certain if the system will result in severe weather, however at this stage the system should be observed full time and throughout the weekend. SAWDOS is currently monitoring this system very closely en encourage all it's weather observers to do the same.
All SAWDOS Weather Observers and even non SAWDOS weather observers are hereby requested to report heavy continues rain and other abnormal weather phenomena in their area of observation. Be alert and send observations to the SAWDOS as we will in turn publish the observations to the benefit of the general public.
Send information to:
SAWDOS Email: Click HERE
SMS Information to: 076 251 3482
Twitter Messages: @SAWDOS1
Facebook: Click HERE.
Images: SAT24 + U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction
Blizzard ‘Nemo’ strengthening as it moves into U.S. Northeast
The two storm systems are merging into one nasty blizzard for the Northeast U.S. Image Credit: GOES/NASA
The nor’easter, named “Nemo” by the Weather Channel, is currently evolving and growing in strength as it pushes closer to the U.S. Northeast. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has declared a state of emergency for the entire state of New York. Meanwhile, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has banned cars on roads after 4 p.m EST. New York City could see a foot of snow as the storm intensifies later tonight, and totals will only increase as you travel north and east. Two to three feet of snow is possible from Connecticut, to Massachusetts, and through southwestern Maine. Storm surge of two to four feet is still expected with coastal flooding becoming a major concern. Further north, winter storm warnings and watches are in effect for much of Newfoundland. Many areas across the Northeast have already picked up two to four inches of snow. Some areas in Vermont are reporting nine inches of snow, and the event is just beginning!
Read more HERE.
- EarthSky
Friday, 1 February 2013
Tropical Cyclone Felleng (South Indian Ocean) : NASA Sees Cyclone Felling Squeeze Between Madagascar and La Reunion
On Jan. 31, NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of Cyclone Felleng at 5:05 a.m. EST on Jan. 31 that showed strong thunderstorms continue to wrap around the center of circulation, and Felleng's eye is now obscured by high clouds. The western edge of the storm is brushing eastern Madagascar (left) and eastern edge is over La Reunion and Mauritius islands (right). Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
NASA satellite imagery saw Cyclone Felleng appear to squeeze between Madagascar and La Reunion island as it moves southward in the Mozambique Channel.
On Jan. 31 at 5:05 a.m. EST, The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of Cyclone Felleng that showed thunderstorms continue to wrap around the center of circulation. The image also showed that Felleng's eye is now obscured by high clouds. The MODIS image showed that the western edge of the storm was brushing eastern Madagascar and eastern edge was over both La Reunion and Mauritius islands. Infrared satellite imagery revealed that strongest convection has been decreasing throughout the cyclone during the early morning hours of Jan. 31. Although unseen on visible satellite data, microwave imagery showed an eye feature with the deep convection confined to the eastern semi-circle.
On Jan. 31 at 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST) Tropical Cyclone Felling was moving through the Mozambique Channel. Felleng had maximum sustained winds near 85 knots (97.8/157.4 kph). Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 140 miles (161 miles/259 km) from the center. It was centered near 18.2 south latitude and 51.1 east longitude, about 300 nautical miles (345 miles/555 km) west-northwest of LaReunion Island. Felleng is moving to the southwest at 6 knots (7 mph/11 kph). La Reunion refers to Felleng as "07/20122013." Felleng is creating very rough seas in the northern Mozambique Channel with wave heights up to 32 feet (9.7 meters).
La Reunion Island has issued a Yellow alert as Felleng continues its trek through the channel. The Yellow alert means that residents can expect strong winds, heavy rains and high swells.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Felleng to continue weakening as it moves in a southeasterly direction.
Text Credit: Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
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