TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone HARUNA

South Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 22 Feb, 2013 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone HARUNA (16S) currently located near 23.0 S 43.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Betioky (23.7 S, 44.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.