Eskom has warned that it might need to return to load-shedding if people do not trim 10% from the current energy demand.
Eskom CEO Brian Dames said yesterday: "We do not want to go back to load-shedding but we cannot do this alone. We need to save 10% of our energy demand and remove 3000 MW from it to ensure that the power system can operate in a stable mode."
Economist Mike Schussler predicted that load-shedding would take place from March, with dire consequences for the economy.
"So it seems that South Africa will have to save at least 10% of its power during some weeks, maybe even close to 15%," Schussler said.
He said Eskom's big customers had already been forced to cut back.
"We will see below-par manufacturing and mining production figures, and one can say with certainty that high growth rates are very unlikely and that declines in manufacturing output for steel, zinc and chrome are more likely."
This, he said, would affect vehicle production and some deep mining for gold and coal.
"GDP growth might come in even lower than expected - growth might be less than 2% on the back of this news.
"Job creation in mining and manufacturing is very unlikely and in some cases job destruction is more likely - this is perhaps not quite as bad as in early 2008 but here we have the warnings."
Schussler said applications for construction permits were still low, with many builders and architects still on three- or four-day work weeks.
Low growth in big agricultural projects was very likely because water pumping, which used electricity, would be affected.
"The production side of the economy is not going to grow much this year with this Eskom warning.
"Eskom's quarterly update allowed business to plan for lower production levels," Schussler said.
He said 2008 would be "the year in which South Africa's manufacturing output hit a record and perhaps we can surpass that record in 2014 or even only in 2015".
- Times Live
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