WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.6S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.8S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.1S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.8S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.6S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.4S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 38.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 38.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 655 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS EASED AND THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE HAS FILLED
FOR THE TIME BEING, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTS
IN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ESPECIALLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION
SHOWING ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. A 200513Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THE THICKEST CONVECTIVE BANDING IS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 75
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. DESPITE THE FLAT INTENSITY TREND
OVER THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS PRIMED FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN
DEVELOPMENT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL A WEDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 DEGREES, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN ABSOLUTELY SPECTACULAR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THICK
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE BANDS CAN BE OBSERVED STREAMING INTO
THE DEEP INTERIOR OF THE CONTINENT BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND BENDING OVER THE RED SEA AND SAUDI PENINSULA.
THE 200000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CAPTURES A SINGULAR
OUTFLOW POINT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), PLACING THE LLCC UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A
KNOWN PROPENSITY FOR SYSTEMS IN THE REGION TO UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RISING WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUN, AND TC 08S WILL REMAIN IN THAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
LONG TERM. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW BECAUSE TC 08S EXISTS IN A FICKLE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NONETHELESS, TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONGEALED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND THERE IS IMPROVED
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW S-SHAPED PATTERN WITH A GRADUAL MOVEMENT
TO THE SOUTH. TC 08S EXISTS BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, ONE OFF-
SHORE NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR AND THE OTHER CENTERED IN AN ANTICYCLONE
OFF-SHORE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE-SOUTH AFRICA BORDER. TC 08S IS
EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO. CURRENTLY, THE NORTHERN
ANTICYCLONE IS NUDGING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CONTINENT, BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO RETRACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE CONTINENT WILL THEN BEGIN EASING THE SYSTEM BACK INTO THE
CHANNEL. NEAR TAU 72, THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MADAGASCAR WILL BUILD
AGAIN AND RESUME DRIVING TC 08S TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH 25 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE BUT LONG RANGE PROGS INDICATE A SUBTLE BUT STEADY INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER IT MAKES
THE BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
All images and data courtesy of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) - USA Navy
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