Tropical Storm now active in the Mozambique Channel (8 January 2012)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Five) Warning #01
Issued at 07/2100Z

SAWDOS: I mentioned earlier this morning that an intense low pressure system is active in the Mosambique channel. It has now been confirmed that a Tropical storm is now active in the Mozambique channel. An official TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 has been issued. SAWDOS will monitor the storm for further developent and movement and will inform our readers accordingly.

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061921Z JAN 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.8S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS LOCATED
IN A DIFFLUENT REGION 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE IN CONTRAST TO THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES PROVIDING MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). AS A RESULT OF THE VWS, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC, HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
DESPITE THE VWS, THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM AMPLE DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT AN
ESTIMATED 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 071507Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS CLEAR LOW-LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURES SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC,
WITH A FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON
MADAGASCAR AFTER WHICH TC 05S WILL DISSIPATE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST
TRACK IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 061930).//
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- JTWC