Two tropical cyclones are now active in the South Indian Ocean. The first cyclone is active in the Mozambique Channel and has been named Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso) while Tropical Cyclone 07S (Ethel) is active to the east of Madagascar.
Further detail: Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso)
WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.8S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.2S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.9S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.0S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.6S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 39.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 39.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 595 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 08S HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A VISIBLE EYE
PRESENT. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE
REPRESENTED A 75 KNOT SYSTEM. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 08S. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CURRENT
RIDGE STEERING TC 08S WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CAUSING TC 08S TO SLOW AND BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWARD. A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TC
08S WILL BUILD SLOWLY OVER MADAGASCAR STEERING THE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72 A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE CAUSING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEYOND TAU 36
INTENSITY WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW MOVES EASTWARD. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TC 08S
REMAINING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BUT GREATLY DIFFER IN TRACK
DIRECTIONS WITH THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Further Detail: Tropical Cyclone 07S (Ethel)
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 65.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 65.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.6S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 31.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 34.4S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TC 07S WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A MIX OF DVORAK
FIXES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN THE EQUATORWARD RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE AMPLE
VENTILATION TO THE LLCC WITH AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THE INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TC 07S
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
LOCATED TO THE EAST, DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH STIFLING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DECREASING OUTFLOW, DECREASING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
All images and data courtesy of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) - USA Navy
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