Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 24 2012
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At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 21.3S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/12 HRS
Hurricane Force Winds
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15 NM radius from the center
Storm Force Winds
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30 NM radius from the center
Gale Force Winds
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50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle
Near Gale Force Winds
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70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle
Forecast and Intensity
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12 HRS: 22.4S 38.9E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 23.4S 39.0E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.3S 39.2E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 25.3S 39.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
Additional Information
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System intensity is more stable for the latest hours. General structure is unchanged. Eye is still minuscule within a very cold 90 to 110 NM central dense overcast.
Within the next 48 hours, the ridge of mid-troposphere situated in the east moves away eastward as an other ridge might rebuilt a bit in the west. After an accelerating for the day on a south-southwestward track, Funso might decelerate again tomorrow and take a southward to south-southeastward track due to ridge going away eastward. Within this forecast period, environmental conditions remain very favorable under a upper level ridge and over high heat content waters. System might keep its current intensity with fluctuations.
From j+3, system should accelerate again and continue to track south-southeastward with a deeper trough coming from the west in the south of the system. At the same time, a westerly vertical wind shear should slowly and then rapidly strengthen and Funso will encounter more and more cold waters. So system might slowly weaken and then begin its extra-tropicalization.
Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.
According to the actual forecast track, Funso might transit in the west of Europa Island at about 140 km westward. Strong winds with gust in the range of 100/110 km/h and heavy rains are expected.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
- - CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Seychelles Meteorological Service
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