Update: Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso) South Indian Ocean( Mozambique Channel)

Images: CIMSS (Click on images for larger view.)

210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 37.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 
KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND NOW HAS A WELL DEFINED 8 NM DIAMETER 
EYE. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT (APPROXIMATELY 
25 NM), LAND INTERACTION IS HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY, AS 
TC 08S TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD BACK OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, 
PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS. A 210501Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND VIGOROUS EYEWALL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TC 08S 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK, YET COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS 
BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT IS CONSTRAINED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGES 
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND POLEWARD. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH AFRICA. 
AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD 
OVER MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24 NOW THAT TC 07S (ETHEL) HAS BEGUN TO RE-
CURVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
RAPIDLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO 
PROVIDE A RE-CURVE MECHANISM FOR TC 08S. FOLLOWING THE TROUGH 
PASSAGE, THE STR SHOULD RE-BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED 
TAUS. IN TURN, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE 
BACK TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, HOWEVER THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW 
IN THIS WEAK ENVIRONMENT WITH SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS. DESPITE THE 
FORECAST COMPLEXITY, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST 
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH MAY START TO MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT TC 08S FROM MAKING LANDFALL. THIS 
FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 
220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

- CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)