Update: Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso) South Indian Ocean( Mozambique Channel)

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222100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 39.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTHEAST OF 
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 
THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY 
TRACKS AWAY FROM LAND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL CDO 
FEATURE (APPROXIMATELY 70-90 NM DIAMETER) WITH A DEVELOPING, WEAK 
EYE. A 221724Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE 
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 
SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE 
OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD ALONG 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND 
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND, BASED ON THE IMPROVING 
ORGANIZATION, THE PEAK INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS AND 
MOVED EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO TAU 24-36. AFTER TAU 72, THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS A 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSITS SOUTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM AND THE STR RE-BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS WITH UKMO, GFDN AND ECMWF 
SUPPORTING A SLOWER TRACK AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED 
TAUS. THE OTHER CLUSTER, COMPOSED OF GFS, NOGAPS AND WBAR, SHOWS A 
FASTER TRACK WITH RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. ANALYSIS OF MODEL FIELDS 
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS TRACK IS UNLIKELY. FIRST, 
GFS IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE STR, WHICH IT IS 
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SECOND, NOGAPS DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH, 
WHICH INDUCES A RAPID RE-CURVE. THIS DEEP TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT WEST 
OF SOUTH AFRICA; IMAGERY INDICATES A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITH 
RIDGING OVER SOUTH AFRICA, THEREFORE, THE NOGAPS SCENARIO IS DEEMED 
UNLIKELY. TC 08S IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE BUT THIS IS MORE 
LIKELY WELL AFTER TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
221800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
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- CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)