Update: Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso) South Indian Ocean( Mozambique Channel)

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232100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
AN APPROXIMATELY 12NM WIDE EYE AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-
INTENSIFY. A 231504Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS STRONG BANDING OVER 
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RELATIVELY THINNER, MULTIPLE BANDING 
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED 
INTENSIFICATION WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5-10 
KNOTS, VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS 
DEPICTED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 
29 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH A POCKET OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 
CURRENTLY UNDER THE LLCC. TC FUNSO IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THIS STEERING PATH 
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE 
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, TC 08S SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-
CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM 
THE WEST INFLUENCES THE TRACK MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE 
STEERING RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES BY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL 
INCREASE AND THEREFORE BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAUS 96-120, 
TC FUNSO SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES 
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FORECAST DIFFERS FROM THE 
PREVIOUS DUE TO THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO AND EVENTUAL EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW BEGUN TO COME IN-LINE 
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM 
MORE QUICKLY INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE 
SOUTH SHORTLY. THIS FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND MODEL 
CONSENSUS AND PORTRAYS THE SLOWER RE-CURVE SCENARIO PRODUCED BY THE 
SECOND, DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
231800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
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- CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)