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270900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 39.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 30-NM ROUND EYE AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE RAGGED. A 270531Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS BEGINNING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 BASED ON THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS, WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE WIND FIELD IS SLOW TO ADJUST TO THE DECREASING CONVETION.THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND RECURVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24. NEAR TAU 36, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK, ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF AND IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 30 FEET.
- CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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