Update: Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso) South Indian Ocean( Mozambique Channel)

220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 38.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM NORTHEAST OF 
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT TC 08S IS MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE 
REASONABLY WELL DESPITE ITS CONTINUED PROXIMITY TO THE AFRICAN 
CONTINENT AND ITS SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS. DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST 
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO FORM OVER 
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND WRAP INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 08S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), HOWEVER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG. A 220621Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION, HOWEVER AN SSMIS IMAGE A FEW HOURS 
EARLIER STILL SHOWED A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND LOW-LEVEL 
STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE 
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE. AS TC 08S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM LAND AND 
OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WHERE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS, IT IS EXPECTED 
TO RE-INTENSIFY. ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS 
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH MID-LEVEL 
RIDGING TO NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH OF TC 08S. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED 
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE 
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AFTER TAU 24, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TRACK 
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 96 UNTIL A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH 
AND FINALLY BEGINS TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. NUMERICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS REVERSE-S TRACK 
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO DIFFERENCES 
IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS 
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR 
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
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- CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)