Update: Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso) South Indian Ocean( Mozambique Channel)

230900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 39.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTHEAST OF 
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 
08S CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE WITH A CLOUD 
FILLED EYE AND INCREASING SYMMETRY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE 
AFRICAN CONTINENT. A 230230Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS THE INNER CORE HAS 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION 
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
VALUES OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES 
CELSIUS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE AND FIXES 
ON THE INFRARED EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
NOW ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK 
SOUTHWARD, THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT 
STEERING MECHANISM. DUE TO THE COMPLEX AND COMPETING STEERING 
MECHANISMS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. 
THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE TRACK SOLUTION.  
UKMO AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVED TRACK WITH 
POSSIBLE RECURVATURE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE 
NOGAPS, GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK 
THAT QUICKLY RECURVES THE STORM INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. 
FINALLY THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH GFS 
UNREALISTICALLY TURNS THE STORM MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS 
MOZAMBIQUE IN THE EARLY TAUS, IT IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 
EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVERALL. THE MODELS INDICATING A FAST 
RECURVE SCENARIO FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND TAU 
48 WHEREAS THE SLOW SCENARIO SOLUTIONS FORECAST A WEAKER, NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH WHICH HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE STR ALLOWING TC 08S TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LATER PHILOSOPHY IS MORE IN 
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC 
ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT RECURVATURE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY 
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGE. THIS FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD 
THE ECWMF /UKMET /AVN SOLUTIONS AND DEPARTS FROM CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.
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- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)