Issued at 07/2100Z
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHANDA) WARNING NR 003//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHANDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 20.3S 43.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 43.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.2S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED
AS TC 05S INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON AGREEABLE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. TC
05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081800Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN
- JTWC
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