Image: Tropical Low Pressure system active in the Mozambique Channel

Image: NOAA19 12H48 SAST (Ben Engelbrecht, Dundee) Click on image for larger view.

What is happening in the Mozambique channel?

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 
44.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM CROSSED OVER THE 
CAPE SAINT ANDRE REGION YESTERDAY AND MOVED INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE 
CHANNEL BUT HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP SUBSTANTIALLY. IT APPEARS TC 08S 
(FUNSO) HAS SAPPED THE ENERGY OUT THE REGION FOR THE TIME BEING. 
ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW CONDITIONS NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE AS THEY 
WERE LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. A 311502Z SSMIS 
IMAGE REVEALS SOME CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE, BUT LOW LEVEL BANDING IS SEVERELY 
LACKING OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THE 311200Z UPPER LEVEL 
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP 
OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS PRODUCING APPROXIMATELY 25 KNOTS OF 
EASTERLY  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC WILL MOVE 
INTO A ZONE OF RELAXING SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE A MINIMALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 TO 27 
DEGREES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)