WTXS21 PGTW 260130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 53.3E TO 14.9S 44.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 260100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 53.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252320Z AMSU IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALTHOUGH THE LLCC APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WHILE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270130Z.//
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- JTWC + CIMSS
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