Update: Cyclone Season 2012: Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (Southern Indian Ocean) 15 February 2012 09h00 SAST

Image: NOAA18 (Nic Cronje, Nelspruit) Click on image for larger view.)


There is currently a discrepancy as to the future track of Cyclone Giovanna over the Mozambque Channel. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre report (12 & 15Z on Tuesday 14 February 2012) showing a recurve back towards Madagascar.

Earlier models indicate that Giovanna will make landfall in Mozambique and then dissipates which is consistent with many previous predictions.

This mornings models by JTWC and CIMSS shows the track moving towards Mozambique and at 64E 24S recurve back into the Mozambique channel moving in a southern direction.

Image JTWC (Click on image for larger view.)

Model guidance has continued to have difficulty with the system track with several aids shifting back to a more westward track into Mozambique.

With a difference in predictions, the SAWDOS is of the opinion that the best alternative route to follow is the real time observation route via satellite images. By tacking Cyclone Giovanna in real time format, we will be able to see clearly in which direction the cyclone will be moving. The SAWDOS suggest that readers use SAT24 images to track Cyclone Giovanna. SAT24 pages available by clicking HERE.

- SAWDOS