Update: Cyclone Season 2012: Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (Southern Indian Ocean) 16 February 2012 18h00 SAST

I had a look at this afternoon's satellite images and forecast models. I might have been correct with my earlier prediction that Giovanna is tracking south eastwards towards southern Madagascar and not towards Mozambique as many forecasters had predicted. It is quite interesting to note that heavy rain was predicted for parts of South Africa in a press release and I quote: "On Saturday and Sunday, the tropical depression is predicted to affect the southern parts of Mozambique, extending to Swaziland and the Mpumalanga lowveld. Communities in the northern KwaZulu-Natal are also likely to be affected to be affected on these days." Be as it may one never know for certain and it would still be wise to monitor Giovanna for the next three days as the system begins to weaken.  Note: Model predictions are very useful to forecasters, but real time storm observations is still the best method to track storms.

The following satellite image clearly show the current position of Tropical Storm Giovanna. Note: In my opinion low orbital (800km) satellite images gives a far better indication of the exact location of Giovanna.

NOAA-18 16 February 2012 14h00 SAST ( Nic Cronje, Nelspruit)

As I mentioned before tropical storms have a will of their own and can change direction at any time. Please stay alert!!