010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 43.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS TO 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 (KNES/FMEE) TO 65 (PGTW) KNOTS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE CENTER. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96 WHEN THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET.
- JTWC + CIMSS
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