011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 43.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS IT BRUSHED THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AFTER TAU 24 AND FLATTEN THE CYCLONE'S TRACK TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TC IRINA WILL IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MOZAMBIQUE, JUST NORTH OF MAPUTO. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET.
- JTWC + SAT24.com
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