020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 41.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 14S HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO STEER
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTH AFRICA, WEAKENING THE STR AND LEADING TO INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEREFORE, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MAPUTO AND DISSIPATION AS TC 14S TRACKS INLAND. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 20 FEET.
- JTWC + CIMSS
No comments:
Post a Comment