070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 41.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT 12-HOUR ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME ELONGATED AND WAS DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS CONVECTIVE TOPS BECAME SHALLOWER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 062256Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DETACHED FROM THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. TC IRINA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO SUSTAINED MODERATE VWS AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE OUTLIER PROJECTING A CONTINUED LINEAR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE ABRUPTLY TRACKING THE VORTEX POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET.
- JTWC
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