090300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 39.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 082220Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BECOMING SHALLOWER OVER A STILL TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MINIMAL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER A COOL SEA SURFACE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET.
- JTWC + CIMSS
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