051500Z POSITION NEAR 30.6S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH IS IMPINGING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL VENTED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, GUIDING TC 14S BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE INTENSITY WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, DIMINISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 24. UPWELLING NEAR THE COAST AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TC 14S TO DISSIPATE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOOPING PATTERN, HOWEVER MODELS HAVE DIFFERING TIMING OF LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 18 FEET.
- JTWC + CIMSS
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