021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 39.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 021038Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH UP TO LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION INTO MOZAMBIQUE. TC IRINA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS, AS THE VWS RELAXES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, INDICATING COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS OVER A WEAKENED SYSTEM. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY POLEWARD TUG INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET.
- JTWC + CIMSS
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