100300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 36.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME UNRAVELED AND DISORGANIZED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 092124Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM THE MICROWAVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ON THE 092124Z TRMM IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INHIBIT THE SYSTEM FROM REGENERATING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET.
- JTWC
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