Cyclone Season 2012: Tropical Cyclone Irina (Southern Indian Ocean) 8 March 2012 18h00 SAST

Images: NOAA18 (Nic Cronje, Nelspuit) Click on images for larger view.

081500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 39.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (25 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE HINDERING THE ABILITY OF TC 14S TO DEVELOP AND WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, SPEEDING UP THE WEAKENING TREND. THE COMBINATION OF POOR SSTS AND DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET.

- JTWC